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Visual Revelations

Visual Revelations Howard Wainer, Column Editor Until Proven Guilty: False Positives and the War on Terror Sam Savage and Howard Wainer rint and electronic media have been filled with debate concerning Pthe tactics employed in the War on Terror. These must invariably walk the line between maintaining civil liberties and screening for possible terrorists. Discussions have typically focused on issues of ethics and morality. Is it ethical to eavesdrop on phone and email con- analys versations; to use ethnic profiling in picking possible terrorists for further investigation; to imprison suspects without legal recourse for indefinite amounts of time; to make suspects miserable in an effort to get them to reveal cabals and plots? While we believe these are impor- tant questions to ask, we are surprised by how little of the debate has dealt with the likely success of these tactics. Given the obvious social costs, the efc fi acy of such surveillance programs must be clearly understood if a rational policy is to be developed. Perhaps the biggest barrier to public understanding of this problem surrounds the issue of false positives. Not only is this subject not intuitive, but getting it wrong can result in counter-productive policies. Bayesian analysis is http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Chance Taylor & Francis

Visual Revelations

Wainer, Howard; Savage, Sam
Chance , Volume 21 (1): 4 – Jan 1, 2008
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References (5)

Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
Copyright Taylor & Francis
ISSN
1867-2280
eISSN
0933-2480
DOI
10.1080/09332480.2008.10722887
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Howard Wainer, Column Editor Until Proven Guilty: False Positives and the War on Terror Sam Savage and Howard Wainer rint and electronic media have been filled with debate concerning Pthe tactics employed in the War on Terror. These must invariably walk the line between maintaining civil liberties and screening for possible terrorists. Discussions have typically focused on issues of ethics and morality. Is it ethical to eavesdrop on phone and email con- analys versations; to use ethnic profiling in picking possible terrorists for further investigation; to imprison suspects without legal recourse for indefinite amounts of time; to make suspects miserable in an effort to get them to reveal cabals and plots? While we believe these are impor- tant questions to ask, we are surprised by how little of the debate has dealt with the likely success of these tactics. Given the obvious social costs, the efc fi acy of such surveillance programs must be clearly understood if a rational policy is to be developed. Perhaps the biggest barrier to public understanding of this problem surrounds the issue of false positives. Not only is this subject not intuitive, but getting it wrong can result in counter-productive policies. Bayesian analysis is

Journal

Chance – Taylor & Francis

Published: Jan 1, 2008

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