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An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets

An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Nature Climate Change Springer Journals

An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets

Bamber, J. L.; Aspinall, W. P.
Nature Climate Change , Volume 3 (4) – Jan 6, 2013
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References (25)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 by Nature Publishing Group
Subject
Environment; Environment, general; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice
ISSN
1758-678X
eISSN
1758-6798
DOI
10.1038/nclimate1778
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided.

Journal

Nature Climate Change – Springer Journals

Published: Jan 6, 2013

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