Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The population dynamics of the desert locust, <jats:italic>Schistocerca gregaria</jats:italic><jats:sup>*</jats:sup> (Forsk.), in Africa, the Middle East and Asia from 1966 to 1969 have been analysed to determine the causes of the beginning and the abrupt end of the plague of 1968. Evidence indicates that in 1966 there were no persistent sequences of breeding by gregarious populations, but in 1967 and early 1968 there were four sequences of breeding by initially solitary behaving locusts, each resulting in a substantial increase in numbers and density. These events led to a plague that ended by mid-1969.</jats:p><jats:p>The threshold rainfall requirement for successful breeding, defined as an increase in numbers from mature adults of the parent generation to filial fledglings, has been related to the rainfall required for the germination of ephemerals and their growth to sizes that can provide food and shelter for hoppers throughout their development. It is suggested that the minimum quantity of rainfall required initially over a large area is 25 mm. This requirement is usually met in the summer breeding areas. Rainfall in the winter-spring breeding areas is more variable, and falls exceeding the threshold are most commonly associated with deep troughs in the mid- and upper-tropospheric westerly winds in winter and spring. A season in which many such troughs occur may be essential for plague development. It is also suggested that the timing of successive periods of rainfall allowing successful breeding is critical in determining the occurrence of upsurges.</jats:p><jats:p>Control against non-gregarious infestations failed to contain the upsurge, but later control measures against hopper bands and swarms contributed to the plague decline. The most economical strategy for plague prevention might be one of upsurge elimination, that is to say control in selected areas against gregarious locusts only. The implications of adopting such a strategy are discussed.</jats:p>