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Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods

Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods Long‐range weather forecasting is a notoriously difficult area of environmental science. However, recent improved understanding of atmospheric dynamics and better observations indicate that useful progress, rooted in scientifically sound ideas, may be possible with long‐range forecasting in the tropics. We describe recent research into the mechanisms and prediction of rainfall in the sub‐Sahara during the main summer rainfall season, concentrating on the Sahel region. We use a complex physical model of the atmosphere (a ‘general circulation’ model) and two relatively simple statistical models to show that large‐scale variations in sea surface temperature (SST) can strongly influence seasonal Sahel rainfall. Persistence of patterns of SST anomalies (deviations from long‐term average) is sufficient to allow useful forecasting techniques to be based on fields of SST anomalies observed in the preceding spring. However, persistence of the SST anomalies may not always be sufficient to provide a skilful forecast. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Forecasting Wiley

Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods

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References (43)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1991 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN
0277-6693
eISSN
1099-131X
DOI
10.1002/for.3980100104
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Long‐range weather forecasting is a notoriously difficult area of environmental science. However, recent improved understanding of atmospheric dynamics and better observations indicate that useful progress, rooted in scientifically sound ideas, may be possible with long‐range forecasting in the tropics. We describe recent research into the mechanisms and prediction of rainfall in the sub‐Sahara during the main summer rainfall season, concentrating on the Sahel region. We use a complex physical model of the atmosphere (a ‘general circulation’ model) and two relatively simple statistical models to show that large‐scale variations in sea surface temperature (SST) can strongly influence seasonal Sahel rainfall. Persistence of patterns of SST anomalies (deviations from long‐term average) is sufficient to allow useful forecasting techniques to be based on fields of SST anomalies observed in the preceding spring. However, persistence of the SST anomalies may not always be sufficient to provide a skilful forecast.

Journal

Journal of Forecasting – Wiley

Published: Jan 1, 1991

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