Abstract

HUNGDAH CHIU E ver since July 15, I 971, when Pre~iden t Nixon made the historic announcement of his plan to visit the People's Republic of China, the future prospects of the Republic of China on Taiwan have been widely discussed by commentators and scholars. Initially, most of these analysts projected pessimistic forecasts. For example, after President Nixon's February 1972 visit to the PRC, Time maga­ zine reported the widely-held view that "unification" (a euphe­ mism for a Communist Chinese takeover of Taiwan) might be achieved within as short a period as five years. Since 1970, the ROC in Taiwan has survived many major crises, including expulsion from the United Nations, President Nixon's visit to China, the oil shocks of 1973 and 1974 with the accompanying worldwide recession, the death of President Chiang Kai-shek, and-most recently-the Carter Administration's formal recognition of Peking and consequent derecognition of Taipei. What is more, Taiwan under ROC rule has continued to prosper despite these blows. Per capita income will soon exceed US $2,000; and even the PRC has come to admit that Taiwan has a much higher standard of living than the mainland, and that Taiwan is no longer a backward agricultural society.