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The ambiguity of intelligent algorithms: job killer or supporting assistant

The ambiguity of intelligent algorithms: job killer or supporting assistant Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 DOI 10.1007/s40309-016-0091-3 ORIGINAL ARTICLE The ambiguity of intelligent algorithms: job killer or supporting assistant 1 1 1 Anette Braun & Axel Zweck & Dirk Holtmannspötter Received: 28 July 2016 /Accepted: 16 October 2016 /Published online: 30 October 2016 The Author(s) 2016. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Abstract The history of industrialisation shows how new population (demographic change) and the need for a modified technologies triggered social and economic revolutions, and workplace design in context of the changed age structure of how traditional jobs were replaced or changed by the use of the workforce. This Paper intends to explore on basis of the machines. There are signs of highly dynamic changes in the findings from the most recent German Foresight Exercise learning and working environment of the 21st century, with (BMBF Foresight Cycle II), how technological innovations serious global social consequences similar to the industrial in the field of ICT will dramatically change structures and revolution. In the working environment, computers assist peo- ways of communication, collaboration and work. Some alter- ple and reduce their workload in a variety of ways. With in- native development paths and implications for the areas job, creasing computing power and advanced memory technolo- career, production and work are scrutinized and discussed. gies, they master the basics of autonomous machine learning. Possible developments depend on the degree of autonomy of Intelligent algorithms are increasingly taking control, with the computer systems and the extent to which humans lose control result that in many occupations, decisions are already routine- over these systems; while - of course - the boundaries between ly taken by software systems and not by people any more. conceivable scenarios are fluid. Within just a few decades, information technology and its . . . associated technological requirements have become the cata- Keywords Job Work Career Autonomous computer lyst for a highly industrialised society. Developments in mi- systems croelectronics are progressing at exponential speed, which will also have far-reaching social consequences for vocational fields outside of the information and communication technol- Abbreviations ogies. Impacts of the knowledge and information society in- IT Information Technologies clude changes in the nature of work towards an increasingly ICT Information and Communication Technologies important service sector and a significant increase in knowl- BMBF Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung edge work. This is accompanied by a decline in the working (German Research Ministry) Introduction * Anette Braun [email protected]; http://www.vditz-ibb.de The history of industrialisation shows how new technologies triggered social and economic revolutions, and how traditional Axel Zweck jobs were replaced or changed by the use of machines. There [email protected]; http://www.vditz-ibb.de are signs of IT-driven highly dynamic changes in the learning Dirk Holtmannspötter and working environment of the 21st century, with serious [email protected]; http://www.vditz-ibb.de 1 global social consequences similar to the industrial revolution, Innovationsbegleitung und Innovationsberatung, VDI such as the substitution of traditional jobs. Within just a few Technologiezentrum GmbH, VDI-Platz 1, 40468 Düsseldorf, Germany decades, information technology and its associated 9 Page 2 of 8 Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 technological requirements have become the catalyst for a change structures and ways of communication, collaboration highly industrialised society. In contrast to historical develop- and work. Possible development paths and dimensions de- ments there are new and different issues, induced by the de- pend on the extent to which humans lose or keep control over velopments in microelectronics that are progressing at expo- these computer systems. Like that, it aims at an adequate dis- nential speed, which will also have far-reaching social conse- cussion of the socio-economic consequences and needs deriv- quences for vocational fields outside of the information and ing from the spread of computer intelligence in everyday life. communication technologies. These developments hold im- mense innovation potentials for reducing costs and enhancing efficiency of routine-based professional tasks (even in Background knowledge-based occupations and professions such as medi- cal services), and possibly even in research and development In the light of the ever-growing role of technology foresight as well. and forecasting in strategic thinking [2], the most recent Impacts of the knowledge and information society include German national Foresight process identifies future global changes in the nature of work towards an increasingly impor- social challenges relating to Germany that will be relevant tant service sector and a significant increase in knowledge between now and 2030 with an emphasis on the social conse- work. This is accompanied in many western countries by a quences [3–5]. On basis of the findings of this German decline in the working population (demographic change) and Foresight Process (Cycle II), the basic assumption of this pa- the need for a modified workplace design in context of the per is that the increasing use of autonomous computer systems changed age structure of the workforce. has extensive impacts on the working environment, on educa- In the working environment, computers may further assist tion and training, as well as on economic and social systems. people and reduce their workload in a variety of ways. With Notably in that it is rather an Bactivity^ that can be replaced by increasing computing power and advanced memory technolo- computers, and not an entire Bprofession^, substitution of hu- gies, they master the basics of autonomous machine learning man capital is not limited to low-skilled fields of activity. [1]. Intelligent algorithms are increasingly taking control, with the result that in many occupations, decisions are already rou- Excursion: the German foresight cycle II tinely taken by software systems and not by people any more. Hence, the question arises whether intelligent algorithms are 5 BMBF Foresight Cycle II (2012–2014) is complementary to job killers or whether they are rather supporting assistants. Cycle I and focuses on changed needs resulting e.g. from On basis of the findings derived from the most recent na- social transformation. The overriding aim of BMBF tional German Foresight process (Cycle II) this paper scruti- Foresight Cycle II is to identify social challenges at the inter- nizes the potential implications of the Bwork colleague faces between society and technology in the form of innova- computer^ and their possible ubiquity in everyday life in a tion seeds. As emphasised in the High-Tech Strategy 2020, the narrative way for the areas work, production, job and career. main innovation drivers are considered to be Bnew technolo- (The boundaries between conceivable scenarios are fluid.) It gies, services, and new social developments or changes, but argues that the spread of Bautonomous computer systems^ is also global challenges to which solutions and responses need driven by cost-efficiency but also by the necessity of provid- to be found^ [6]. ing an IT-based assistance for increasingly complex decision- In light of this, the current Cycle II Foresight (2012– making processes – increasingly in the middle class 2014) identifies future global social challenges relating to environment. Germany that will be relevant between now and 2030 Furthermore, it suggests that the increasing number of with an emphasis on future social trends and challenges. complexly linked facts and parameters will dramatically With the completion of the search phase of the second cycle of the BMBF Foresight process, exciting results The algorithm is the basic technique (computer programme) used to get the concerning future social and technological developments job done, while the intelligent algorithm is designed to allow the computer to with a time horizon of 2030 are now available. The pro- learnonits own. http://computer.howstuffworks.com/question717.htm, https://www.wired.com/insights/2014/09/artificial-intelligence-algorithms-2/ cess addresses possible upheavals in the fields of health, https://www.bmbf.de/de/mit-foresight-in-die-zukunft-schauen-930.html, research and innovation, education, business, politics and Accessed 16 September 2016 work. To this end, suitable knowledge banks are accessed, There are many ideas and concepts of the Bmiddle class^, but no final, widely recognized definition in a sociological sense. In this paper, Bmiddle class^ is 4 Cycle I Foresight (2007–2009) centred on a technology-oriented approach. understood as Bsocial class usually comprising of white-collar (non-manual) BMBF Foresight Cycle II (2012–2014) 4 is complementary to Cycle I and workers, lower-level managers, and small business owners, often constituting focuses on changed needs resulting e.g. from social transformation. about one-third of the employed population of a country. The income of this class is higher than that of the working-class but lower than that of the upper- This Foresight process was conducted on a subcontractor basis by VDI middle class (doctors, engineers, lawyers, middle-size business owners) and Technologiezentrum GmbH in conjunction with the Fraunhofer Institute for upper class.^ http://www.businessdictionary.com/ Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 Page 3 of 8 9 combined and prepared in appropriate ways. Apart from modular system instead of fixed curricula. It is possible the original task of Foresight – to identify new trends and that businesses will express their requirements in the form topics – the current challenges of Foresight processes lie of specific teaching modules, and guarantee jobs for a in filtering a glut of multimedia information on a project- certain number of graduates. As a result, assessment related basis, i.e. in deciding which of the many develop- criteria and the reputation possibilities for universities ments that are publicised around the world are particularly may change fundamentally. relevant to the ministry. Therefore, in addition to the de- Great challenges will arise here for career guidance, for partments’ Foresight activities, BMBF Foresight Cycle II higher education course offerings, for the design of education- has concentrated on determining possible fields of action al content and for the identification of future job market for overarching global social challenges. requirements. The methodological approach is based on the assumption The concept of general education will change, creating the that innovations are resulting from a combination of techno- challenge of regularly reviewing learning content for schools, logical developments (Btechnology push^) and social require- vocational training, and university study. ments (Bdemand pull^). Therefore the method was consisting However, because of the semantic arrangement of informa- of three work stages and resulted in three separate result re- tion, not only people but also computers are increasingly able ports (see Fig. 1). to use and intelligently evaluate the internet as a knowledge The first stage (A) comprises a balanced inventory of pool in an automated manner. Ever greater volumes of data are social changes that have a bearing on the future and available in machine-readable form – not least mass data (big which are significant to persons and organisations pro- data) from social networks that helps computers to learn how moting research and innovation. It identified social people think and take decisions. trends (60 trend profiles) and derived social challenges As humans increasingly deal with robots on an everyday (seven topic areas) [3]. basis, contact between humans may decrease. This could cre- The second stage (B) provides a comprehensive account of ate problems for citizens’ social integration – or it may finally 11 research and technology perspectives with a generally con- provide the necessary freedom and opportunity for person-to- sistent level of complexity and granularity. It is therefore well person contact. suited to providing non-technical people with an overview, From an economic perspective, large companies in par- while offering specialists in particular disciplines detailed in- ticular might stand to benefit from efficiency increases sights into neighbouring fields [4]. brought about by automation : While company profits The stories from the third stage (C) link social chal- might increase, they would be generated by ever fewer lenges to research and technology perspectives. This high- employees and some jobs might become obsolete. Ever lights possible socio-technical lines of development. Any fewer people may be required in the value creation pro- discrepancies between the possible developments as cess [7]. portrayed in the stories, and desirable developments from In the past, many jobs were created in the service sec- the reader’s point of view, are indicative of organisational tor, but these could themselves be heavily affected in the tasks which will ultimately need to be addressed via a future [8]. The potential for substitution varies heavily society-wide debate. The stories are intended to provoke among the different occupational skill levels, but low- such discussions [5]. Hence, apart from the original task skilled activities might be more affected by displacement of Foresight – to identify new trends and topics – the effect. Critics fear that the digital revolution will fail to current German Foresight process links social challenges create enough new jobs, and that the concentration of to research and technology perspectives, portrayed in wealth in the hands of the few will increase [7]. short stories and trend profiles that are intended to offer If computers or robots will be able to perform jobs in food for thought and discourse, ranging from issues such the future, which are currently done by humans, as in the as Bdo it yourself Germany^ to Bwelfare competence^ and manufacture of mobile phones in Asian low-wage coun- Bwork colleague computer^ [5]. On the latter the results of tries, this will have a massive impact on global economic the German Foresight process demonstrate that a broad structures . With intelligent manufacturing processes, the discussion of the issue is necessary to fully and adequate- factories could return to the sales markets, creating enor- ly address future societal needs. mous opportunities for Europe. In the education sector these developments may have disruptive effects on lecturers and their attendance-based classes: they might be replaced by online lectures and, for Automation as defined in DIN standard V 19233: equipping a facility so that classical universities, the question will arise of whether it operates wholly or partially without human involvement. long-standing curricula are even still appropriate. Online As discussed for instance here: Rethink Robotics. http://www. universities may offer a more appropriate flexible, rethinkrobotics.com/. Accessed 14 June 2016 9 Page 4 of 8 Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 Fig. 1 The three work stages of Foresight Cycle II Autonomous computer systems: a challenge hospitals, while on the world’s high-frequency exchanges, for the middle class? autonomous computer algorithms trade in millisecond cy- cles. Modern text-synthesis algorithms could very soon This chapter argues that technological innovations in the write news articles on sports events or compile financial field of ICT are driven by cost-efficiency but also by the news into reports that are barely distinguishable from necessity of providing an IT-based assistance for increas- texts by human authors. The middle class could be in- ingly complex decision-making processes. It explores creasingly affected by these change processes due to loss possible development paths depending on the extent to of income or unemployment [10, 11]. which humans lose or keep control over computer The question arises as to the distribution of the Bautomation systems. dividend^ and the design of future social systems. It would be Increasingly, computers and autonomous robots will be helpful here to have a scientific discourse about guiding prin- able to assist – or take over – an increasing number of ciples that describe a balanced relationship between human human activities. They will not only carry out complicat- and digital labour. It is important to systematically identify ed production steps completely by themselves, but will the extent to which striving for (profit) optimisation is ethical- also perform thinking activities while delivering advisory ly justifiable when using automation to raise productivity: and other services for knowledge workers and service How should society deal with the elimination of further jobs providers. This creates new economic opportunities for through rationalisation? What can be done to ensure that the Germany and its competitiveness against low-wage coun- current young generation is adequately prepared for digital tries. In addition, developments in automation could be competency pressure and changing job profiles? one approach to solving the skills shortage and reducing Hence it is necessary to ask on the one hand what conse- the burdenof workon citizens. It may alsochange many quences such a development will have for the working world existing job profiles and contribute to the emergence of and society in the future, and on the other hand, how Germany new ones. Demand for suitably qualified personnel may will position itself in the international field of Balgorithm produce opportunities for the job market. providers^ [12]. However, it will also contribute to making a number of existing jobs superfluous. The elimination of low-skilled assembly-line jobs as a result of rationalisation could be followed by the elimination of supposedly skilled Possible development paths knowledge-worker jobs in the future [7, 9]. A number of professional fields in which comparatively high incomes Driven by cost-efficiency and but also by the necessity of are earned – such as medicine and law – involve many providing an IT-based assistance for increasingly complex routine tasks, which increasingly may be performed by decision-making processes, the possible development paths information technologies. It is expected that many jobs depend on the degree of autonomy of computer systems and will be eliminated or change significantly with far- the extent to which humans lose or keep control over these reaching challenges particularly for the middle class and systems. The boundaries between conceivable scenarios are for highly qualified professions: electronic medical expert fluid, as outlined below in two extreme scenarios: extensive systems in hospitals are already making diagnoses in control and complete loss of control. Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 Page 5 of 8 9 Humans keep control over computer systems the sales, office, transport and logisticssectorsaswellasadmin- istration and services could be eliminated [8]. A development where humans have extensive control over com- The growing independence of software systems is accompa- puter systems and their applications would assume maximum nied by a continuous increase in technological complexity. transparency in the development of software systems and appli- Technical backgrounds and processes are ever less comprehen- cations. System architectures should have a modular structure sible to normal users because of their fast pace of development. wherever possible, and intermediate products shall be clearly Because of the large number of technical systems that surround defined. Users will have operational control over systems that humans, the vast majority of users are no longer expected to have an exclusively supporting function. For example, important understand the underlying technology. Here humans are the di- decisions are prepared by computer systems, but the actual deci- rect driver of a loss of control which they tolerate. Even IT sion is always taken by a person following an evaluation and specialists usually only understand some portions of networked control step. With this development path, there is less of an systems. The result of the interplay of complex feedback systems impact on many knowledge-based jobs since people retain is becoming ever less comprehensible to individual people. decision-making powers and responsibilities. Computers here Consequently, it is difficult to check whether decisions or solu- have supporting functions for decision-making, and their inter- tions that are taken or calculated by computer systems are actu- faces in all areas of life and work are geared towards humans. ally optimal. If computers assist people to a greater extent in knowledge- If human correction is eliminated, it is possible that autono- based work processes in the future, this will result in numerous mous decisions by computer systems will be Bneutral^ and opportunities. This assistance could have a positive effect on the Bimpartial^, but on the other hand they could result in uncom- growing desire for time sovereignty. However, if computers be- promising harshness towards the people affected by them. When come more independent, this could mean that work processes it comes to dealing with temporary payment difficulties on a and the people involved in them have to orientate themselves to home loan, for instance, algorithmic decisions may have a dif- technical systems. Yet surely an orientation to human require- ferent outcome than the decision taken by a bank clerk, who is ments is desirable here [13]. People who know how to use com- familiar with the borrower. Moreover, undetected system errors puters and intelligent algorithms optimally for their work will may have serious consequences such as incorrect calculations have the biggest opportunities in the job market. Furthermore, and wrong decisions. This creates the challenge of preserving automation opens up a variety of new opportunities to promote transparency and control capabilities for humans in the case of inclusion in the working environment. Individual work steps that autonomous decisions by computer systems and their innova- cause problems can be performed by automated systems, and as tions. Here, as in other areas too, questions of standardisation a result, humans can retain their position in the value chain. need to be answered. The discussion about the dependence of humans on technical systems is not new. However, from today’s perspective, it is difficult to imagine the dimensions that a potential failure of Computer systems become independent - humans networked technological systems might have in the future. It will lose control be a key requirement in the future development of technology and innovations to consider the risks of technical failures or A development where humans completely lose control over malfunctions. Related to this, the issue of liability should be computer systems and their applications would assume a massive addressed in case autonomous systems cause damage. spread of autonomous computer systems and big data replacing human intuition. Driven by cost-efficiency and the increasing inability of humans to take into account a large number of com- Work colleague computer plexly linked facts and parameters in decision-making, com- puters would be used in ever more areas to make independent The German Foresight Process has portrayed in short stories decisions that have direct or indirect consequences for humans. how a Bwork colleague computer^ that does so many jobs, These systems would develop themselves independently, where works around the clock, never gets tired, and doesn’tmake humans are completely uninvolved (with IT specialists mainly any careless mistakes, might influence the everyday life in ensuring that the systems do not fail.) An example for such a 2030 and beyond. On the basis of these results and in fictional development is the increasing algo trading, where intelligent al- form, this chapter tries to illustrate challenges for the areas gorithms produce stock market reports, which in turn are work, production, job and career. Potential implications of analysed by other algorithms [14]. However, if assistance in the workplace goes so far that humans can increasingly be replaced The stories were developed in the frame of the BMBF Foresight Cycle II and by computer systems, job losses and sharp falls in income would published in Volume 3 of be the consequence. It was estimated that up to 50 % of all jobs in results from the search phase of BMBF Foresight Cycle II. 9 Page 6 of 8 Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 the Bwork colleague computer^ and their possible ubiquity in assistant is capable of. After a phase of getting to know each everyday life are scrutinized in a narrative way, where the other that lasted several weeks, the robot learned to understand boundaries between conceivable scenarios are fluid. In this every spoken word, and even to recognise gestures and facial way, they may serve as a point of departure for further public expressions. A few weeks ago, the robot rushed to the discussions and dialogue. labourer’s aid when it saw that his face was contorted by pain. He had trapped his foot, but the robot quickly managed to free him. The aircraft manufacturer now uses more than 100 robot Work colleague computer: working environment assistants in production just at this site, and has significantly expanded its global market position. The robot assistants have A journalist sits in her home office, a cup of coffee in her hand. made a large contribution to this success, even though some The computer has analysed yesterday evening’s football World production jobs have been lost. Cost-intensive work to rectify Cup Final overnight, and written up a punchy draft article. assembly defects is now rarely necessary. But robot assistants News reports have been created automatically for some time occasionally break down or report a malfunction. In an inter- now, and often they are even published on the online news site nal pilot project, a team of robots is working autonomously on without any human intervention. It’s a great thing, as it means individual assembly steps. Their perceptions, activities and that the journalist has more time for editorial work that is more communication with each other are fully monitored by challenging and more interesting. The computer is also helpful collecting together all the data and information they generate for doing technical research. To start with, it automatically com- in a cloud, so that it can be analysed someplace in the world. piles relevant facts on almost any topic. Not only that, it pre- Initial concerns about data security were allayed. The aircraft pares and organises its findings in a presentation. While the manufacturer is one of the global pioneers in using robot as- journalist was sleeping, the computer did the research for an sistants in production. The company’smanagementquickly upcoming interview with a professor of informatics about au- recognised the potentials, and took the investment risk after tonomous computer systems. It’s interesting to think about a pilot phase. For some time now, the company has partnered where it all might lead to. The journalist quickly skims through with a mobile phone provider. They want to make the prepared summary of the current state of development. The smartphones in Germany and are interested in the aircraft presentation ranges from automated business analysis to the manufacturer’s positive experiences with the robot assistants’ evaluation of gigantic data volumes to detect all kinds of dan- fine motor skills. Thanks to the use of robots, they will soon be gers, to the percentage of doctors who currently use intelligent ready to relocate production from Asia to Germany, and start diagnostic systems on an everyday basis, which frees up time to making mobile devices for the consumer goods market in spend talking to their patients. This figure recently reached Germany again. 85 %. The journalist is always surprised at how the significance of technology is changing in many occupations. His personal digital assistant, for example, has become indispensable as it Work colleague computer: services performs all the secretarial duties: the computer routinely ar- ranges appointments, places orders, answers calls and helps A family is looking forward to their summer holiday in Spain: with management tasks. The computer informs the journalist their suitcases are packed and the driverless taxi is about to that the virtual interview with the informatics professor will come and collect them. Their luggage is checked in automat- startin5min. Thankstoaholographic projection system, the ically at the airport. The family won’t see their bags again until journalist sits directly opposite the interviewee and saves a lot they get to their hotel room. Before the family leaves their of time and money to be spent on alternative travel. However, house, they set the home automation controller to holiday since the journalist now only rarely needs to leave the house for mode. The controller switches lights on and off to make it interviews, personal contact to human beings has become look like someone’s at home, and even briefly opens windows seldom. safely located on the first floor to the tilt position. From the outside, you would hardly know that the house is unoccupied. Actually it’s not really vacant, as the home robot will water the Work colleague computer: production environment flowers and tell them straight away if anything untoward hap- pens in the house or garden. A labourer in production for an aircraft manufacturer has a The family enjoys the almost silent journey in the separate mobile robot assistant by his side to help him with all the taxi lane. Journey times have fallen dramatically because of assembly work. The robot lifts heavy parts and sometimes the taxi lane, and accidents have become a rarity. The city even fits a tiny screw if it’s too fiddly for the labourer, who centre has been turned into a pilot area for testing autonomous quickly learned to work with the robot assistant intuitively, but transport systems, and is even closed off to private cars. Most nevertheless took a training course to learn what the robot passenger and goods transportation takes place via Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 Page 7 of 8 9 autonomous and driverless taxis, buses, trains and parcel therefore more profitable. Doctors, nursing staff and so on drones. The journey ends almost directly in front of the would therefore once again have more time to spend with check-in machine. This is possible because the luggage was patients, and people generally might have more (free) time transported separately in advance, which means it takes much for conversation, neighbourhood services, family and friends. less time to get out of the car. As they have some time to spare, This opens up opportunities for Germany to increase its com- the family goes into a fast-food restaurant, places their order at petitiveness, and at the same time there is the prospect that a display terminal, pays and receives an order slip. They can future automation technologies will produce interesting new use this to log in at any table they like and the food is auto- sales markets. Furthermore, a possible skills shortage could be matically delivered to the table. A service robot with a keep- alleviated by using computers and robots in many fields. warm function serves them. Although this is less personal than In factories, robots are able to take over physically strenu- before, it does mean that the food is still piping hot when it ous and also difficult work in close proximity to humans. arrives at the table. Many restaurant chains now use service These machines are able to recognise humans and their move- robots like this, which enables them to stay open 24 h a day. ments, thus minimising the risk of injury. In the future, robots However, during the flight, a flight attendant is available for will also be able to correctly interpret the gestures and facial the board service, not a robot. expressions of humans in their surroundings. As a result, they can be used as flexible and mobile robot assistants, e.g. in assembly. In future, robots could be capable of performing Work colleague computer: new job models delicate and complex production steps that previously could only be done by hand (e.g. assembling a mobile phone). New, While lifelong learning is omnipresent, it has become easier to fully automated German production facilities would therefore study at a renowned international university, as nearly all uni- have the potential in the future to compete against factories in versities worldwide offer affordable distance learning courses. low-wage countries. Furthermore, automation opens up a va- In the market for creative production an open, global creative riety of new opportunities to promote inclusion in the working competition takes place. The best ideas count, and even for environment. Individual work steps that cause problems can large companies it’s Bin^ to award assignments to less well- be performed by automated systems, and as a result, humans known creative thinkers (designers, etc.). can retain their position in the value chain. Following a downturn in sales in recent years, this has now It is entirely possible that in the near future, automation will led the established agencies to adopt new business models. also impact heavily on the service sector. Many service offer- These changes have been caused not least by new automation ings could be improved by automation in terms of the avail- technologies, which make it possible for aspiring one-person ability and scope of services. By 2030, robots, drones and automatons might be able, 24 h a day, to serve food, deliver design agencies to present clients with professional product designs. For example, a single freelance designer produces parcels, transport people, offer supermarket shopping, answer demonstrations of his designs overnight on a 3D printer. In calls in call centres without queueing, etc. Significant ecolog- the past, it used to take model-makers days to build product ical effects can be expected in passenger and goods transpor- designs by hand. tation as a result of efficiency enhancements and green pro- pulsion technologies. However, more widespread use of computers in the occupa- Conclusions tional fields of knowledge workers and service providers may lead to competition for jobs between intelligent machines and An answer to the initial question of the paper (BAre intelligent humans. A new understanding of the future division of labour algorithms job killers or supporting assistants?^) clearly is that and role allocation between humans and machines is needed the spread of autonomous systems requires an adequate dis- here. The question also arises of the distribution of wealth, if cussion of the challenges and the socio-economic conse- wealth is increasingly generated by machines. Job profiles could quences, which in turn depend on the extent to which humans continually change with the steady growth of computer power, or lose or keep control over these computer systems. lose much of their importance to humans. It is anticipated that In future, computers will be so powerful that they will many tasks and jobs in management, organisation, reporting and probably be able to take over tasks from knowledge workers. administration could be eliminated. This would result in con- One key driver of this development is that a large part of stantly changing requirements for further training and qualifica- human knowledge will be stored digitally in the future and tions. At the moment it is still unclear as to which new occupa- be accessible to computers via cloud computing. With the help tions will be created in connection with managing, monitoring of big data, cognitive computer systems can detect hidden and maintaining robots and networks, data analysis, and software patterns and have become capable of learning, like humans. and algorithm development, and how long demand for such new occupations will last. As a result, work processes can be made more efficient and 9 Page 8 of 8 Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 intelligenz-und-bueromaterial-googles-rechner-erkennen- Especially with the increasing possibilities for digital com- papierschredder-angeblich-besser-als-jeder-mensch/. Accessed 16 munication and working, the freedom to do many work activ- June 2016 ities from home must not lead to an excessive reduction in 2. Braun A, Holtmannspötter D, Korte S, Rijkers-Defrasne S, Zweck personal contact. The widespread use of digital assistants A (2013) „Technologieprognosen – Internationaler Vergleich 2013B. VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH (ed) ZTC 97 and robots makes technical dependencies conceivable, while 3. Zweck et al. (2015) Forschungs- und Technologieperspektiven new questions arise concerning data privacy and data security. 2030, Ergebnisband 1 zur Suchphase von BMBF Foresight As innovations of this kind emerge, protective measures Zyklus II, Zukünftige Technologien. http://www.vditz. against malfunctions, functional failures and manipulation de/fileadmin/media/VDI_Band_100_C1.pdf. Accessed 09 June 2016 would need to be developed. 4. Zweck et al. (2015) Forschungs- und Technologieperspektiven Not only will cognitive computer systems become ever more 2030, Ergebnisband 2 zur Suchphase von BMBF Foresight powerful, in the future they may also be able to optimise them- Zyklus II, Zukünftige Technologien. http://www.vditz. selves, i.e. to change by themselves. These changes should only de/fileadmin/media/VDI_Band_101_C1.pdf. Accessed 09 take place within a defined framework, not in an uncontrolled June 2016 5. Zweck et al. (2015) Forschungs- und Technologieperspektiven manner. As they become increasingly powerful and indepen- 2030, Ergebnisband 3 zur Suchphase von BMBF Foresight dent, cognitive computer systems have the potential to become Zyklus II, Zukünftige Technologien. http://www.vditz. competitors for jobs. This is true not only for pure assembly de/fileadmin/media/VDI_Band_102_C1.pdf. Accessed 09 work, but also e.g. for engineering design services. June 2016 6. BMBF (2010) Ideen. Innovation. Wachstum. Hightech-Strategie The primary challenges resulting from automation in the 2020 für Deutschland. Bonn, Berlin service sector are those of job design and preserving jobs. 7. 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Was machen wir. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the http://www.heise.de/tr/artikel/Computer-machen-die-Arbeit-was- Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http:// machen-wir-2158035.html. Accessed 14 June 2016 creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted 11. Cowen T (2013) Average is over: powering America beyond the use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give ap- Age of the great stagnation. Dutton, New York propriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the 12. Ford M (2009) The lights in the tunnel: automation, Accelerating Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. technology and the economy of the future. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, p l 13. Kurz C, Rieger F (2013) Arbeitsfrei: Eine Entdeckungsreise zu den Maschinen, die uns ersetzen. Riemann Verlag, Munich References 14. Rieger F (2012) Roboter müssen unsere Rente sichern. http://www. faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/debatten/automatisierungsdividende-fuer- 1. Nötges T (2013) Von künstlicher Intelligenz und Büromaterial. alle-roboter-muessenunsere-rente-sichern-11754772.html. http://www.basicthinking.de/blog/2013/11/19/von-kuenstlicher- Accessed 14 June 2016 http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png European Journal of Futures Research Springer Journals

The ambiguity of intelligent algorithms: job killer or supporting assistant

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Springer Journals
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Copyright © 2016 by The Author(s)
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History; History of Science; Innovation/Technology Management; Sustainable Development; Political Science; European Integration; Demography
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2195-4194
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10.1007/s40309-016-0091-3
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Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 DOI 10.1007/s40309-016-0091-3 ORIGINAL ARTICLE The ambiguity of intelligent algorithms: job killer or supporting assistant 1 1 1 Anette Braun & Axel Zweck & Dirk Holtmannspötter Received: 28 July 2016 /Accepted: 16 October 2016 /Published online: 30 October 2016 The Author(s) 2016. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Abstract The history of industrialisation shows how new population (demographic change) and the need for a modified technologies triggered social and economic revolutions, and workplace design in context of the changed age structure of how traditional jobs were replaced or changed by the use of the workforce. This Paper intends to explore on basis of the machines. There are signs of highly dynamic changes in the findings from the most recent German Foresight Exercise learning and working environment of the 21st century, with (BMBF Foresight Cycle II), how technological innovations serious global social consequences similar to the industrial in the field of ICT will dramatically change structures and revolution. In the working environment, computers assist peo- ways of communication, collaboration and work. Some alter- ple and reduce their workload in a variety of ways. With in- native development paths and implications for the areas job, creasing computing power and advanced memory technolo- career, production and work are scrutinized and discussed. gies, they master the basics of autonomous machine learning. Possible developments depend on the degree of autonomy of Intelligent algorithms are increasingly taking control, with the computer systems and the extent to which humans lose control result that in many occupations, decisions are already routine- over these systems; while - of course - the boundaries between ly taken by software systems and not by people any more. conceivable scenarios are fluid. Within just a few decades, information technology and its . . . associated technological requirements have become the cata- Keywords Job Work Career Autonomous computer lyst for a highly industrialised society. Developments in mi- systems croelectronics are progressing at exponential speed, which will also have far-reaching social consequences for vocational fields outside of the information and communication technol- Abbreviations ogies. Impacts of the knowledge and information society in- IT Information Technologies clude changes in the nature of work towards an increasingly ICT Information and Communication Technologies important service sector and a significant increase in knowl- BMBF Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung edge work. This is accompanied by a decline in the working (German Research Ministry) Introduction * Anette Braun [email protected]; http://www.vditz-ibb.de The history of industrialisation shows how new technologies triggered social and economic revolutions, and how traditional Axel Zweck jobs were replaced or changed by the use of machines. There [email protected]; http://www.vditz-ibb.de are signs of IT-driven highly dynamic changes in the learning Dirk Holtmannspötter and working environment of the 21st century, with serious [email protected]; http://www.vditz-ibb.de 1 global social consequences similar to the industrial revolution, Innovationsbegleitung und Innovationsberatung, VDI such as the substitution of traditional jobs. Within just a few Technologiezentrum GmbH, VDI-Platz 1, 40468 Düsseldorf, Germany decades, information technology and its associated 9 Page 2 of 8 Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 technological requirements have become the catalyst for a change structures and ways of communication, collaboration highly industrialised society. In contrast to historical develop- and work. Possible development paths and dimensions de- ments there are new and different issues, induced by the de- pend on the extent to which humans lose or keep control over velopments in microelectronics that are progressing at expo- these computer systems. Like that, it aims at an adequate dis- nential speed, which will also have far-reaching social conse- cussion of the socio-economic consequences and needs deriv- quences for vocational fields outside of the information and ing from the spread of computer intelligence in everyday life. communication technologies. These developments hold im- mense innovation potentials for reducing costs and enhancing efficiency of routine-based professional tasks (even in Background knowledge-based occupations and professions such as medi- cal services), and possibly even in research and development In the light of the ever-growing role of technology foresight as well. and forecasting in strategic thinking [2], the most recent Impacts of the knowledge and information society include German national Foresight process identifies future global changes in the nature of work towards an increasingly impor- social challenges relating to Germany that will be relevant tant service sector and a significant increase in knowledge between now and 2030 with an emphasis on the social conse- work. This is accompanied in many western countries by a quences [3–5]. On basis of the findings of this German decline in the working population (demographic change) and Foresight Process (Cycle II), the basic assumption of this pa- the need for a modified workplace design in context of the per is that the increasing use of autonomous computer systems changed age structure of the workforce. has extensive impacts on the working environment, on educa- In the working environment, computers may further assist tion and training, as well as on economic and social systems. people and reduce their workload in a variety of ways. With Notably in that it is rather an Bactivity^ that can be replaced by increasing computing power and advanced memory technolo- computers, and not an entire Bprofession^, substitution of hu- gies, they master the basics of autonomous machine learning man capital is not limited to low-skilled fields of activity. [1]. Intelligent algorithms are increasingly taking control, with the result that in many occupations, decisions are already rou- Excursion: the German foresight cycle II tinely taken by software systems and not by people any more. Hence, the question arises whether intelligent algorithms are 5 BMBF Foresight Cycle II (2012–2014) is complementary to job killers or whether they are rather supporting assistants. Cycle I and focuses on changed needs resulting e.g. from On basis of the findings derived from the most recent na- social transformation. The overriding aim of BMBF tional German Foresight process (Cycle II) this paper scruti- Foresight Cycle II is to identify social challenges at the inter- nizes the potential implications of the Bwork colleague faces between society and technology in the form of innova- computer^ and their possible ubiquity in everyday life in a tion seeds. As emphasised in the High-Tech Strategy 2020, the narrative way for the areas work, production, job and career. main innovation drivers are considered to be Bnew technolo- (The boundaries between conceivable scenarios are fluid.) It gies, services, and new social developments or changes, but argues that the spread of Bautonomous computer systems^ is also global challenges to which solutions and responses need driven by cost-efficiency but also by the necessity of provid- to be found^ [6]. ing an IT-based assistance for increasingly complex decision- In light of this, the current Cycle II Foresight (2012– making processes – increasingly in the middle class 2014) identifies future global social challenges relating to environment. Germany that will be relevant between now and 2030 Furthermore, it suggests that the increasing number of with an emphasis on future social trends and challenges. complexly linked facts and parameters will dramatically With the completion of the search phase of the second cycle of the BMBF Foresight process, exciting results The algorithm is the basic technique (computer programme) used to get the concerning future social and technological developments job done, while the intelligent algorithm is designed to allow the computer to with a time horizon of 2030 are now available. The pro- learnonits own. http://computer.howstuffworks.com/question717.htm, https://www.wired.com/insights/2014/09/artificial-intelligence-algorithms-2/ cess addresses possible upheavals in the fields of health, https://www.bmbf.de/de/mit-foresight-in-die-zukunft-schauen-930.html, research and innovation, education, business, politics and Accessed 16 September 2016 work. To this end, suitable knowledge banks are accessed, There are many ideas and concepts of the Bmiddle class^, but no final, widely recognized definition in a sociological sense. In this paper, Bmiddle class^ is 4 Cycle I Foresight (2007–2009) centred on a technology-oriented approach. understood as Bsocial class usually comprising of white-collar (non-manual) BMBF Foresight Cycle II (2012–2014) 4 is complementary to Cycle I and workers, lower-level managers, and small business owners, often constituting focuses on changed needs resulting e.g. from social transformation. about one-third of the employed population of a country. The income of this class is higher than that of the working-class but lower than that of the upper- This Foresight process was conducted on a subcontractor basis by VDI middle class (doctors, engineers, lawyers, middle-size business owners) and Technologiezentrum GmbH in conjunction with the Fraunhofer Institute for upper class.^ http://www.businessdictionary.com/ Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 Page 3 of 8 9 combined and prepared in appropriate ways. Apart from modular system instead of fixed curricula. It is possible the original task of Foresight – to identify new trends and that businesses will express their requirements in the form topics – the current challenges of Foresight processes lie of specific teaching modules, and guarantee jobs for a in filtering a glut of multimedia information on a project- certain number of graduates. As a result, assessment related basis, i.e. in deciding which of the many develop- criteria and the reputation possibilities for universities ments that are publicised around the world are particularly may change fundamentally. relevant to the ministry. Therefore, in addition to the de- Great challenges will arise here for career guidance, for partments’ Foresight activities, BMBF Foresight Cycle II higher education course offerings, for the design of education- has concentrated on determining possible fields of action al content and for the identification of future job market for overarching global social challenges. requirements. The methodological approach is based on the assumption The concept of general education will change, creating the that innovations are resulting from a combination of techno- challenge of regularly reviewing learning content for schools, logical developments (Btechnology push^) and social require- vocational training, and university study. ments (Bdemand pull^). Therefore the method was consisting However, because of the semantic arrangement of informa- of three work stages and resulted in three separate result re- tion, not only people but also computers are increasingly able ports (see Fig. 1). to use and intelligently evaluate the internet as a knowledge The first stage (A) comprises a balanced inventory of pool in an automated manner. Ever greater volumes of data are social changes that have a bearing on the future and available in machine-readable form – not least mass data (big which are significant to persons and organisations pro- data) from social networks that helps computers to learn how moting research and innovation. It identified social people think and take decisions. trends (60 trend profiles) and derived social challenges As humans increasingly deal with robots on an everyday (seven topic areas) [3]. basis, contact between humans may decrease. This could cre- The second stage (B) provides a comprehensive account of ate problems for citizens’ social integration – or it may finally 11 research and technology perspectives with a generally con- provide the necessary freedom and opportunity for person-to- sistent level of complexity and granularity. It is therefore well person contact. suited to providing non-technical people with an overview, From an economic perspective, large companies in par- while offering specialists in particular disciplines detailed in- ticular might stand to benefit from efficiency increases sights into neighbouring fields [4]. brought about by automation : While company profits The stories from the third stage (C) link social chal- might increase, they would be generated by ever fewer lenges to research and technology perspectives. This high- employees and some jobs might become obsolete. Ever lights possible socio-technical lines of development. Any fewer people may be required in the value creation pro- discrepancies between the possible developments as cess [7]. portrayed in the stories, and desirable developments from In the past, many jobs were created in the service sec- the reader’s point of view, are indicative of organisational tor, but these could themselves be heavily affected in the tasks which will ultimately need to be addressed via a future [8]. The potential for substitution varies heavily society-wide debate. The stories are intended to provoke among the different occupational skill levels, but low- such discussions [5]. Hence, apart from the original task skilled activities might be more affected by displacement of Foresight – to identify new trends and topics – the effect. Critics fear that the digital revolution will fail to current German Foresight process links social challenges create enough new jobs, and that the concentration of to research and technology perspectives, portrayed in wealth in the hands of the few will increase [7]. short stories and trend profiles that are intended to offer If computers or robots will be able to perform jobs in food for thought and discourse, ranging from issues such the future, which are currently done by humans, as in the as Bdo it yourself Germany^ to Bwelfare competence^ and manufacture of mobile phones in Asian low-wage coun- Bwork colleague computer^ [5]. On the latter the results of tries, this will have a massive impact on global economic the German Foresight process demonstrate that a broad structures . With intelligent manufacturing processes, the discussion of the issue is necessary to fully and adequate- factories could return to the sales markets, creating enor- ly address future societal needs. mous opportunities for Europe. In the education sector these developments may have disruptive effects on lecturers and their attendance-based classes: they might be replaced by online lectures and, for Automation as defined in DIN standard V 19233: equipping a facility so that classical universities, the question will arise of whether it operates wholly or partially without human involvement. long-standing curricula are even still appropriate. Online As discussed for instance here: Rethink Robotics. http://www. universities may offer a more appropriate flexible, rethinkrobotics.com/. Accessed 14 June 2016 9 Page 4 of 8 Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 Fig. 1 The three work stages of Foresight Cycle II Autonomous computer systems: a challenge hospitals, while on the world’s high-frequency exchanges, for the middle class? autonomous computer algorithms trade in millisecond cy- cles. Modern text-synthesis algorithms could very soon This chapter argues that technological innovations in the write news articles on sports events or compile financial field of ICT are driven by cost-efficiency but also by the news into reports that are barely distinguishable from necessity of providing an IT-based assistance for increas- texts by human authors. The middle class could be in- ingly complex decision-making processes. It explores creasingly affected by these change processes due to loss possible development paths depending on the extent to of income or unemployment [10, 11]. which humans lose or keep control over computer The question arises as to the distribution of the Bautomation systems. dividend^ and the design of future social systems. It would be Increasingly, computers and autonomous robots will be helpful here to have a scientific discourse about guiding prin- able to assist – or take over – an increasing number of ciples that describe a balanced relationship between human human activities. They will not only carry out complicat- and digital labour. It is important to systematically identify ed production steps completely by themselves, but will the extent to which striving for (profit) optimisation is ethical- also perform thinking activities while delivering advisory ly justifiable when using automation to raise productivity: and other services for knowledge workers and service How should society deal with the elimination of further jobs providers. This creates new economic opportunities for through rationalisation? What can be done to ensure that the Germany and its competitiveness against low-wage coun- current young generation is adequately prepared for digital tries. In addition, developments in automation could be competency pressure and changing job profiles? one approach to solving the skills shortage and reducing Hence it is necessary to ask on the one hand what conse- the burdenof workon citizens. It may alsochange many quences such a development will have for the working world existing job profiles and contribute to the emergence of and society in the future, and on the other hand, how Germany new ones. Demand for suitably qualified personnel may will position itself in the international field of Balgorithm produce opportunities for the job market. providers^ [12]. However, it will also contribute to making a number of existing jobs superfluous. The elimination of low-skilled assembly-line jobs as a result of rationalisation could be followed by the elimination of supposedly skilled Possible development paths knowledge-worker jobs in the future [7, 9]. A number of professional fields in which comparatively high incomes Driven by cost-efficiency and but also by the necessity of are earned – such as medicine and law – involve many providing an IT-based assistance for increasingly complex routine tasks, which increasingly may be performed by decision-making processes, the possible development paths information technologies. It is expected that many jobs depend on the degree of autonomy of computer systems and will be eliminated or change significantly with far- the extent to which humans lose or keep control over these reaching challenges particularly for the middle class and systems. The boundaries between conceivable scenarios are for highly qualified professions: electronic medical expert fluid, as outlined below in two extreme scenarios: extensive systems in hospitals are already making diagnoses in control and complete loss of control. Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 Page 5 of 8 9 Humans keep control over computer systems the sales, office, transport and logisticssectorsaswellasadmin- istration and services could be eliminated [8]. A development where humans have extensive control over com- The growing independence of software systems is accompa- puter systems and their applications would assume maximum nied by a continuous increase in technological complexity. transparency in the development of software systems and appli- Technical backgrounds and processes are ever less comprehen- cations. System architectures should have a modular structure sible to normal users because of their fast pace of development. wherever possible, and intermediate products shall be clearly Because of the large number of technical systems that surround defined. Users will have operational control over systems that humans, the vast majority of users are no longer expected to have an exclusively supporting function. For example, important understand the underlying technology. Here humans are the di- decisions are prepared by computer systems, but the actual deci- rect driver of a loss of control which they tolerate. Even IT sion is always taken by a person following an evaluation and specialists usually only understand some portions of networked control step. With this development path, there is less of an systems. The result of the interplay of complex feedback systems impact on many knowledge-based jobs since people retain is becoming ever less comprehensible to individual people. decision-making powers and responsibilities. Computers here Consequently, it is difficult to check whether decisions or solu- have supporting functions for decision-making, and their inter- tions that are taken or calculated by computer systems are actu- faces in all areas of life and work are geared towards humans. ally optimal. If computers assist people to a greater extent in knowledge- If human correction is eliminated, it is possible that autono- based work processes in the future, this will result in numerous mous decisions by computer systems will be Bneutral^ and opportunities. This assistance could have a positive effect on the Bimpartial^, but on the other hand they could result in uncom- growing desire for time sovereignty. However, if computers be- promising harshness towards the people affected by them. When come more independent, this could mean that work processes it comes to dealing with temporary payment difficulties on a and the people involved in them have to orientate themselves to home loan, for instance, algorithmic decisions may have a dif- technical systems. Yet surely an orientation to human require- ferent outcome than the decision taken by a bank clerk, who is ments is desirable here [13]. People who know how to use com- familiar with the borrower. Moreover, undetected system errors puters and intelligent algorithms optimally for their work will may have serious consequences such as incorrect calculations have the biggest opportunities in the job market. Furthermore, and wrong decisions. This creates the challenge of preserving automation opens up a variety of new opportunities to promote transparency and control capabilities for humans in the case of inclusion in the working environment. Individual work steps that autonomous decisions by computer systems and their innova- cause problems can be performed by automated systems, and as tions. Here, as in other areas too, questions of standardisation a result, humans can retain their position in the value chain. need to be answered. The discussion about the dependence of humans on technical systems is not new. However, from today’s perspective, it is difficult to imagine the dimensions that a potential failure of Computer systems become independent - humans networked technological systems might have in the future. It will lose control be a key requirement in the future development of technology and innovations to consider the risks of technical failures or A development where humans completely lose control over malfunctions. Related to this, the issue of liability should be computer systems and their applications would assume a massive addressed in case autonomous systems cause damage. spread of autonomous computer systems and big data replacing human intuition. Driven by cost-efficiency and the increasing inability of humans to take into account a large number of com- Work colleague computer plexly linked facts and parameters in decision-making, com- puters would be used in ever more areas to make independent The German Foresight Process has portrayed in short stories decisions that have direct or indirect consequences for humans. how a Bwork colleague computer^ that does so many jobs, These systems would develop themselves independently, where works around the clock, never gets tired, and doesn’tmake humans are completely uninvolved (with IT specialists mainly any careless mistakes, might influence the everyday life in ensuring that the systems do not fail.) An example for such a 2030 and beyond. On the basis of these results and in fictional development is the increasing algo trading, where intelligent al- form, this chapter tries to illustrate challenges for the areas gorithms produce stock market reports, which in turn are work, production, job and career. Potential implications of analysed by other algorithms [14]. However, if assistance in the workplace goes so far that humans can increasingly be replaced The stories were developed in the frame of the BMBF Foresight Cycle II and by computer systems, job losses and sharp falls in income would published in Volume 3 of be the consequence. It was estimated that up to 50 % of all jobs in results from the search phase of BMBF Foresight Cycle II. 9 Page 6 of 8 Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 the Bwork colleague computer^ and their possible ubiquity in assistant is capable of. After a phase of getting to know each everyday life are scrutinized in a narrative way, where the other that lasted several weeks, the robot learned to understand boundaries between conceivable scenarios are fluid. In this every spoken word, and even to recognise gestures and facial way, they may serve as a point of departure for further public expressions. A few weeks ago, the robot rushed to the discussions and dialogue. labourer’s aid when it saw that his face was contorted by pain. He had trapped his foot, but the robot quickly managed to free him. The aircraft manufacturer now uses more than 100 robot Work colleague computer: working environment assistants in production just at this site, and has significantly expanded its global market position. The robot assistants have A journalist sits in her home office, a cup of coffee in her hand. made a large contribution to this success, even though some The computer has analysed yesterday evening’s football World production jobs have been lost. Cost-intensive work to rectify Cup Final overnight, and written up a punchy draft article. assembly defects is now rarely necessary. But robot assistants News reports have been created automatically for some time occasionally break down or report a malfunction. In an inter- now, and often they are even published on the online news site nal pilot project, a team of robots is working autonomously on without any human intervention. It’s a great thing, as it means individual assembly steps. Their perceptions, activities and that the journalist has more time for editorial work that is more communication with each other are fully monitored by challenging and more interesting. The computer is also helpful collecting together all the data and information they generate for doing technical research. To start with, it automatically com- in a cloud, so that it can be analysed someplace in the world. piles relevant facts on almost any topic. Not only that, it pre- Initial concerns about data security were allayed. The aircraft pares and organises its findings in a presentation. While the manufacturer is one of the global pioneers in using robot as- journalist was sleeping, the computer did the research for an sistants in production. The company’smanagementquickly upcoming interview with a professor of informatics about au- recognised the potentials, and took the investment risk after tonomous computer systems. It’s interesting to think about a pilot phase. For some time now, the company has partnered where it all might lead to. The journalist quickly skims through with a mobile phone provider. They want to make the prepared summary of the current state of development. The smartphones in Germany and are interested in the aircraft presentation ranges from automated business analysis to the manufacturer’s positive experiences with the robot assistants’ evaluation of gigantic data volumes to detect all kinds of dan- fine motor skills. Thanks to the use of robots, they will soon be gers, to the percentage of doctors who currently use intelligent ready to relocate production from Asia to Germany, and start diagnostic systems on an everyday basis, which frees up time to making mobile devices for the consumer goods market in spend talking to their patients. This figure recently reached Germany again. 85 %. The journalist is always surprised at how the significance of technology is changing in many occupations. His personal digital assistant, for example, has become indispensable as it Work colleague computer: services performs all the secretarial duties: the computer routinely ar- ranges appointments, places orders, answers calls and helps A family is looking forward to their summer holiday in Spain: with management tasks. The computer informs the journalist their suitcases are packed and the driverless taxi is about to that the virtual interview with the informatics professor will come and collect them. Their luggage is checked in automat- startin5min. Thankstoaholographic projection system, the ically at the airport. The family won’t see their bags again until journalist sits directly opposite the interviewee and saves a lot they get to their hotel room. Before the family leaves their of time and money to be spent on alternative travel. However, house, they set the home automation controller to holiday since the journalist now only rarely needs to leave the house for mode. The controller switches lights on and off to make it interviews, personal contact to human beings has become look like someone’s at home, and even briefly opens windows seldom. safely located on the first floor to the tilt position. From the outside, you would hardly know that the house is unoccupied. Actually it’s not really vacant, as the home robot will water the Work colleague computer: production environment flowers and tell them straight away if anything untoward hap- pens in the house or garden. A labourer in production for an aircraft manufacturer has a The family enjoys the almost silent journey in the separate mobile robot assistant by his side to help him with all the taxi lane. Journey times have fallen dramatically because of assembly work. The robot lifts heavy parts and sometimes the taxi lane, and accidents have become a rarity. The city even fits a tiny screw if it’s too fiddly for the labourer, who centre has been turned into a pilot area for testing autonomous quickly learned to work with the robot assistant intuitively, but transport systems, and is even closed off to private cars. Most nevertheless took a training course to learn what the robot passenger and goods transportation takes place via Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 Page 7 of 8 9 autonomous and driverless taxis, buses, trains and parcel therefore more profitable. Doctors, nursing staff and so on drones. The journey ends almost directly in front of the would therefore once again have more time to spend with check-in machine. This is possible because the luggage was patients, and people generally might have more (free) time transported separately in advance, which means it takes much for conversation, neighbourhood services, family and friends. less time to get out of the car. As they have some time to spare, This opens up opportunities for Germany to increase its com- the family goes into a fast-food restaurant, places their order at petitiveness, and at the same time there is the prospect that a display terminal, pays and receives an order slip. They can future automation technologies will produce interesting new use this to log in at any table they like and the food is auto- sales markets. Furthermore, a possible skills shortage could be matically delivered to the table. A service robot with a keep- alleviated by using computers and robots in many fields. warm function serves them. Although this is less personal than In factories, robots are able to take over physically strenu- before, it does mean that the food is still piping hot when it ous and also difficult work in close proximity to humans. arrives at the table. Many restaurant chains now use service These machines are able to recognise humans and their move- robots like this, which enables them to stay open 24 h a day. ments, thus minimising the risk of injury. In the future, robots However, during the flight, a flight attendant is available for will also be able to correctly interpret the gestures and facial the board service, not a robot. expressions of humans in their surroundings. As a result, they can be used as flexible and mobile robot assistants, e.g. in assembly. In future, robots could be capable of performing Work colleague computer: new job models delicate and complex production steps that previously could only be done by hand (e.g. assembling a mobile phone). New, While lifelong learning is omnipresent, it has become easier to fully automated German production facilities would therefore study at a renowned international university, as nearly all uni- have the potential in the future to compete against factories in versities worldwide offer affordable distance learning courses. low-wage countries. Furthermore, automation opens up a va- In the market for creative production an open, global creative riety of new opportunities to promote inclusion in the working competition takes place. The best ideas count, and even for environment. Individual work steps that cause problems can large companies it’s Bin^ to award assignments to less well- be performed by automated systems, and as a result, humans known creative thinkers (designers, etc.). can retain their position in the value chain. Following a downturn in sales in recent years, this has now It is entirely possible that in the near future, automation will led the established agencies to adopt new business models. also impact heavily on the service sector. Many service offer- These changes have been caused not least by new automation ings could be improved by automation in terms of the avail- technologies, which make it possible for aspiring one-person ability and scope of services. By 2030, robots, drones and automatons might be able, 24 h a day, to serve food, deliver design agencies to present clients with professional product designs. For example, a single freelance designer produces parcels, transport people, offer supermarket shopping, answer demonstrations of his designs overnight on a 3D printer. In calls in call centres without queueing, etc. Significant ecolog- the past, it used to take model-makers days to build product ical effects can be expected in passenger and goods transpor- designs by hand. tation as a result of efficiency enhancements and green pro- pulsion technologies. However, more widespread use of computers in the occupa- Conclusions tional fields of knowledge workers and service providers may lead to competition for jobs between intelligent machines and An answer to the initial question of the paper (BAre intelligent humans. A new understanding of the future division of labour algorithms job killers or supporting assistants?^) clearly is that and role allocation between humans and machines is needed the spread of autonomous systems requires an adequate dis- here. The question also arises of the distribution of wealth, if cussion of the challenges and the socio-economic conse- wealth is increasingly generated by machines. Job profiles could quences, which in turn depend on the extent to which humans continually change with the steady growth of computer power, or lose or keep control over these computer systems. lose much of their importance to humans. It is anticipated that In future, computers will be so powerful that they will many tasks and jobs in management, organisation, reporting and probably be able to take over tasks from knowledge workers. administration could be eliminated. This would result in con- One key driver of this development is that a large part of stantly changing requirements for further training and qualifica- human knowledge will be stored digitally in the future and tions. At the moment it is still unclear as to which new occupa- be accessible to computers via cloud computing. With the help tions will be created in connection with managing, monitoring of big data, cognitive computer systems can detect hidden and maintaining robots and networks, data analysis, and software patterns and have become capable of learning, like humans. and algorithm development, and how long demand for such new occupations will last. As a result, work processes can be made more efficient and 9 Page 8 of 8 Eur J Futures Res (2016) 4: 9 intelligenz-und-bueromaterial-googles-rechner-erkennen- Especially with the increasing possibilities for digital com- papierschredder-angeblich-besser-als-jeder-mensch/. Accessed 16 munication and working, the freedom to do many work activ- June 2016 ities from home must not lead to an excessive reduction in 2. Braun A, Holtmannspötter D, Korte S, Rijkers-Defrasne S, Zweck personal contact. The widespread use of digital assistants A (2013) „Technologieprognosen – Internationaler Vergleich 2013B. VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH (ed) ZTC 97 and robots makes technical dependencies conceivable, while 3. Zweck et al. (2015) Forschungs- und Technologieperspektiven new questions arise concerning data privacy and data security. 2030, Ergebnisband 1 zur Suchphase von BMBF Foresight As innovations of this kind emerge, protective measures Zyklus II, Zukünftige Technologien. http://www.vditz. against malfunctions, functional failures and manipulation de/fileadmin/media/VDI_Band_100_C1.pdf. Accessed 09 June 2016 would need to be developed. 4. Zweck et al. (2015) Forschungs- und Technologieperspektiven Not only will cognitive computer systems become ever more 2030, Ergebnisband 2 zur Suchphase von BMBF Foresight powerful, in the future they may also be able to optimise them- Zyklus II, Zukünftige Technologien. http://www.vditz. selves, i.e. to change by themselves. These changes should only de/fileadmin/media/VDI_Band_101_C1.pdf. Accessed 09 take place within a defined framework, not in an uncontrolled June 2016 5. Zweck et al. (2015) Forschungs- und Technologieperspektiven manner. As they become increasingly powerful and indepen- 2030, Ergebnisband 3 zur Suchphase von BMBF Foresight dent, cognitive computer systems have the potential to become Zyklus II, Zukünftige Technologien. http://www.vditz. competitors for jobs. This is true not only for pure assembly de/fileadmin/media/VDI_Band_102_C1.pdf. Accessed 09 work, but also e.g. for engineering design services. June 2016 6. BMBF (2010) Ideen. Innovation. Wachstum. Hightech-Strategie The primary challenges resulting from automation in the 2020 für Deutschland. Bonn, Berlin service sector are those of job design and preserving jobs. 7. Brynjolfsson E, McAfee A (2011) Race against the machine: how Many job profiles could substantially change as a result of the digital revolution is accelerating innovation, driving productiv- collaboration with computers and robots. Humans should ity, and irreversibly transforming employment and the economy. not have to orientate themselves to machines. Instead, ma- Digital Frontier Press, Lexington 8. Frey CB, Osborne MA (2013) The Future of Employment: How chines should orientate themselves to humans. One of the susceptible are jobs to computerisation? http://www.oxfordmartin. greatest challenges here will surely be to create new fields of ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. activity for employees in areas where tasks are increasingly Accessed 14 June 2016 being performed by computers and robots. 9. Rifkin J (1997) Das Ende der Arbeit und ihre Zukunft: Neue Konzepte für das 21. Jahrhundert. Campus, New York 10. Grötker R (2013) Computer machen die Arbeit. Was machen wir. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the http://www.heise.de/tr/artikel/Computer-machen-die-Arbeit-was- Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http:// machen-wir-2158035.html. Accessed 14 June 2016 creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted 11. Cowen T (2013) Average is over: powering America beyond the use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give ap- Age of the great stagnation. Dutton, New York propriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the 12. Ford M (2009) The lights in the tunnel: automation, Accelerating Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. technology and the economy of the future. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, p l 13. Kurz C, Rieger F (2013) Arbeitsfrei: Eine Entdeckungsreise zu den Maschinen, die uns ersetzen. Riemann Verlag, Munich References 14. 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Journal

European Journal of Futures Research – Springer Journals

Published: Oct 30, 2016

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