Regional Studies

Gerking, Shelby D.

doi: 10.1080/09595237900185231pmid: N/A

Gerking S. D. (1979) A short term forecasting model for second home construction, Reg. Studies 13, 259–267. This paper presents a simple method for predicting second home construction activity that could be used in any economically developed country. It is argued that this problem is of importance since local planners can best work to mitigate the undesirable side-effects of second home construction when their probable numbers have been estimated in advance. The forecasting method itself is a Box-Jenkins univariate time series extrapolation of seasonal residential electric utility connections. These data serve as a proxy variable for the number of second homes. The method, which is illustrated using data from two Arizona counties, is shown to provide within sample period forecasts that are within tolerable error limits.

Johnson, P.S.; Cathcart, D.G.

doi: 10.1080/09595237900185241pmid: N/A

Johnson P. S. and Cathcart D. G. (1979) New Manufacturing firms and regional development: some evidence from the Northern Region, Reg. Studies 13, 269–280. This paper analyses the role of entirely new firms formed in manufacturing in the Northern Region in recent years. The paper shows that such businesses have made a relatively small direct contribution to employment in the region, although their indirect effects are harder to identify. Mobile plants new to the region appear to be relatively poor incubators for potential founders. Most founders form businesses in the same industrial sector in which they were previously employed, although there is some movement between sub-sectors and from outside the region and manufacturing. New firms are unlikely to provide the major channel for self-sustaining growth in the Northern Region, but they should remain as one important component of regional policy.

Mackay, Ross

doi: 10.1080/09595237900185251pmid: N/A

MacKay R. (1979) The death of regional policy—or resurrection squared? Reg. Studies 13, 281–295. The emphasis is on change in regional performance as we move from weak to strong regional policies. With employment measured in different ways we can look for consistency checks, the timing of change and the nature of important alterations in performance. There are strong indications of a substantial regional policy impact. Regional policy (1945–51) provided more than a temporary improvement in the expansion path of the assisted regions. Change in the age of capital is regarded as an important indication of alteration in growth potential. As national unemployment has risen the emphasis has moved from regional specific policies to the difficulties of the aggregate economy.

McNabb, Robert

doi: 10.1080/09595237900185261pmid: 12263257

McNabb R. (1979) A socio-economic model of migration, Reg. Studies 13, 297–304. This paper examines a model of migration which extends the simple human capital model to include variables that reflect the characteristics of an areas population. Using data on gross out and in migration from Industrial South Wales the theoretical predictions outlined in the model were strongly confirmed. They indicated that out migration depends as much on the characteristics of an areas population as on the economic conditions in that area relative to alternative locations, while differences in in migration depends solely on differences in employment opportunities and environmental conditions.

Todd, D.

doi: 10.1080/09595237900185271pmid: N/A

Todd D. (1979) On urban spill-overs and rural transformation: a Canadian example, Reg. Studies 13, 305–321. Urban spill-overs are key agents in transmitting development impulses from urban centres into rural hinterlands. As such, they are a crucial component of growth centre methodology in regional planning. However, confusion continues to cloud their composition, magnitude and spatial diffusiveness and, as a result, detracts from the usefulness of growth centre strategies. This study attempts to provide a conceptual framework for handling the spatial expression of urban spill-overs and extracts from the Industrial-Urban Hypothesis and Metropolitan Dominance concepts in order to do so. A test situation is construed using Southern Manitoba for tracing urban impacts on rural areas. The findings confirm the varied nature of spill-overs and hint at their limited spatial spread.

Starkie, D.N.M.

doi: 10.1080/09595237900185281pmid: N/A

Starkie D. N. M. (1979) Allocation of investment to inter-urban road and rail, Reg. Studies 13, 323–336. Returns on marginal projects influence the allocation of resources in the U.K. between trunk roads and inter-city rail. However, the basis of these returns is not consistent and their use is unlikely to result in an efficient allocation. A review of pricing policies for the two trunk modes suggests both a similarity of basic structure and an opportunity for extending in general terms the allocation principles of rail to the comparable road sector. Broad calculations are derived comparing avoidable costs and revenues for inter-urban road and rail in 1975. Changes in public expenditure patterns since the mid-70s indicate an efficient allocation might be achieved by the turn of the decade.

doi: 10.1080/09595237900185291pmid: N/A