Financial Distress Prediction in China

Financial Distress Prediction in China We use four alternative prediction models to examine the usefulness of financial ratios in predicting business failure in China. China has unique legislation regarding business failure so it is an interesting laboratory for such a study. Earnings Before Interest and Tax to Total Assets (EBITTA), Earning Per Share (EPS), Total Debt to Total Assets (TDTA), Price to Book (PB), and the Current Ratio (CR), are shown to be significant predictors. Prediction accuracy achieves a range from 78% to 93%. Logit and Neural Network models are shown to be the optimal prediction models. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies World Scientific Publishing Company

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Publisher
World Scientific Publishing Company
Copyright
Copyright ©
ISSN
0219-0915
eISSN
1793-6705
D.O.I.
10.1142/S0219091506000744
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We use four alternative prediction models to examine the usefulness of financial ratios in predicting business failure in China. China has unique legislation regarding business failure so it is an interesting laboratory for such a study. Earnings Before Interest and Tax to Total Assets (EBITTA), Earning Per Share (EPS), Total Debt to Total Assets (TDTA), Price to Book (PB), and the Current Ratio (CR), are shown to be significant predictors. Prediction accuracy achieves a range from 78% to 93%. Logit and Neural Network models are shown to be the optimal prediction models.

Journal

Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and PoliciesWorld Scientific Publishing Company

Published: Jun 1, 2006

Keywords: Financial insolvency prediction Chinese market financial ratios JEL Classification: G330 JEL Classification: G150

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