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Wheat Supply Response: Some Evidence on Aggregation Issues

Wheat Supply Response: Some Evidence on Aggregation Issues Wheat Supply Response: Some Evidence on Aggregation Issues Nurs ¸en Albayrak* Recent concerns about food security claim that since about 1984 world population has been growing faster than cereal production, and that world per capita cereal output is therefore now falling, in other words, the contemporary ‘neo-Malthusian’ case which disproves any Malthusian. Likewise, it has been argued that per capita cereal production has fallen in all the world’s main regions (Brown, 1997; Dyson, 1997). Indeed, with regard to Turkish wheat production, Figure 1, looking at the 5-year moving average curve, shows that the level of per capita wheat output has declined since the early 1980s. Figure 1 Per capita wheat production in Turkey (1935–96) Note: The world average figure is 363 kg/per capita (Dyson, 1997). In a recent article in this journal, Shaw (1997), reviewing a sample of an increasing number of books addressing questions of world food security, comes to a worrying view about the prospects for future generations. Dyson (1997) states that the single most important reason for the decline in world per capita * Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, Harper Adams Agricultural College, School of Management, Newport, Shropshire, UK. Development Policy Review Vol. 16 (1998), 241–263 © Overseas http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Development Policy Review Wiley

Wheat Supply Response: Some Evidence on Aggregation Issues

Development Policy Review , Volume 16 (3) – Jan 1, 1998

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 Wiley Subscription Services
ISSN
0950-6764
eISSN
1467-7679
DOI
10.1111/1467-7679.00063
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Wheat Supply Response: Some Evidence on Aggregation Issues Nurs ¸en Albayrak* Recent concerns about food security claim that since about 1984 world population has been growing faster than cereal production, and that world per capita cereal output is therefore now falling, in other words, the contemporary ‘neo-Malthusian’ case which disproves any Malthusian. Likewise, it has been argued that per capita cereal production has fallen in all the world’s main regions (Brown, 1997; Dyson, 1997). Indeed, with regard to Turkish wheat production, Figure 1, looking at the 5-year moving average curve, shows that the level of per capita wheat output has declined since the early 1980s. Figure 1 Per capita wheat production in Turkey (1935–96) Note: The world average figure is 363 kg/per capita (Dyson, 1997). In a recent article in this journal, Shaw (1997), reviewing a sample of an increasing number of books addressing questions of world food security, comes to a worrying view about the prospects for future generations. Dyson (1997) states that the single most important reason for the decline in world per capita * Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, Harper Adams Agricultural College, School of Management, Newport, Shropshire, UK. Development Policy Review Vol. 16 (1998), 241–263 © Overseas

Journal

Development Policy ReviewWiley

Published: Jan 1, 1998

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