Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
J. Aars, N. Lunn, A. Derocher (2006)
Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 14th Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group, 20-24 June 2005, Seattle, Washington, USA
R. Gregory, Lee Failing, D. Ohlson, T. McDaniels (2006)
Some Pitfalls of an Overemphasis on Science in Environmental Risk Management DecisionsJournal of Risk Research, 9
J. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, C. Johnson (2001)
Climate change 2001 : the scientific basisForeign Affairs, 81
H. Akçakaya, S. Butchart, G. Mace, S. Stuart, C. Hilton‐Taylor (2006)
Use and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversityGlobal Change Biology, 12
M. Parry, O. Canziani, Jean-Pascal Strihou, J. Palutikof (2007)
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
M. Krauss, Elizabeth Casman, M. Small (2004)
Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Uncertainty in the Risk Assessment of Herbicide‐Tolerant Oilseed CropsRisk Analysis, 24
I. Stirling, A. Derocher (1993)
Possible Impacts of Climatic Warming on Polar BearsArctic, 46
David Keith (1996)
When is it appropriate to combine expert judgments?Climatic Change, 33
J. Sluijs, J. Risbey, P. Kloprogge, J. Ravetz, S. Funtowicz, S. Quintana, Â. Pereira, B. Marchi, A. Petersen, P. Janssen, R. Hoppe, S. Huijs (2003)
RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication: Detailed Guidance
M. Morgan, M. Henrion (1990)
Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
W. Sutherland (2006)
Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods*Journal of Applied Ecology, 43
M. Morgan, P. Adams, David Keith (2006)
Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol ForcingClimatic Change, 75
M. Morgan, L. Pitelka, E. Shevliakova (2001)
Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest EcosystemsClimatic Change, 49
D. Griggs, M. Noguer (2002)
Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeWeather, 57
I. Stirling, C. Parkinson (2009)
Possible Effects of Climate Warming on Selected Populations of Polar Bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in the Canadian ArcticArctic, 59
P. Garthwaite, J. Kadane, A. O’Hagan (2005)
Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability DistributionsJournal of the American Statistical Association, 100
A. Derocher, N. Lunn, I. Stirling (2004)
Polar Bears in a Warming Climate1, 44
W. Landman (2010)
Climate change 2007: the physical science basisSouth African Geographical Journal, 92
T. Martin, P. Kuhnert, K. Mengersen, H. Possingham (2005)
The power of expert opinion in ecological models using Bayesian methods: impact of grazing on birdsEcological Applications, 15
J. Comiso (2003)
Warming trends in the Arctic from clear sky satellite observationsJournal of Climate, 16
H. Akçakaya, S. Ferson, M. Burgman, D. Keith, G. Mace, C. Todd (2000)
Making Consistent IUCN Classifications under UncertaintyConservation Biology, 14
R. Clemen, R. Winkler (1999)
Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis, 19
D. Etkin (1990)
Break-up in Hudson Bay: Its Sensitivity to Air Temperatures and Implications for Climate Warming
D. Vaughan, J. Spouge (2002)
Risk Estimation of Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice SheetClimatic Change, 52
R. Slocum (2004)
Polar Bears and Energy-Efficient Lightbulbs: Strategies to Bring Climate Change HomeEnvironment and Planning D: Society and Space, 22
C. Symon, Lelani Arris, B. Heal, Assesment Team (2005)
Arctic climate impact assessment
Summary 1 Polar bear Ursus maritimus population dynamics under conditions of climate change has become a controversial topic. A survey of expert opinion based on modelled sea‐ice data was performed in order to quantify the trends and variance surrounding possible impacts of climate change on polar bear populations. 2 Polar bears have become an iconic species in the communication of climate change. Negative impacts of climatic warming on polar bears have been suggested, but cannot be fully quantified as no Arctic‐wide models yet exist to analyse the relationship between polar bear population dynamics and climate change. 3 Ten polar bear experts participated in an expert opinion survey in early 2007, quantifying the trends and variance surrounding possible impacts of climate change on polar bear populations. The experts were provided with maps and time‐series of sea‐ice extent and duration to 2050, simulated under a mid‐range emissions scenario. Expert projections of future polar bear habitat range and population size across the Arctic, and for population size in five regions, were obtained. Experts were asked to define ‘best conservation practice’, and to re‐evaluate the total Arctic population projection if this best practice was implemented. 4 Most experts project a substantial decline in polar bear range and population size across the Arctic and in population size across each region. Expert best estimates for total Arctic polar bear population size lie from no change to a 70% decrease by 2050 relative to today; with half the experts projecting at least a 30% decrease. The median best estimates show the Barents Sea, Hudson Bay and the Chukchi Sea populations experiencing the greatest population decline under this scenario. There is much uncertainty both within and between expert responses, especially in little‐researched regions such as the Chukchi Sea. 5 Synthesis and applications. Based on projected changes in sea‐ice extent, experts suggest that polar bear populations will undergo significant declines by 2050, even implementing best management practices, under the scenario of climatic warming outlined here. The expert survey approach could be applied to a wide range of species for which there is a lack of available data and considerable uncertainty surrounding all aspects of the problem that prevent quantification with more formal modelling approaches.
Journal of Applied Ecology – Wiley
Published: Dec 1, 2008
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.