Uncertainty and Variability in Human Exposures to Soil Contaminants Through Home‐Grown Food: A Monte Carlo Assessment

Uncertainty and Variability in Human Exposures to Soil Contaminants Through Home‐Grown Food: A... This paper presents a general model for exposure to homegrown foods that is used with a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the relative contributions of variability (Type A uncertainty) and true uncertainty (Type B uncertainty) to the overall variance in prediction of the dose‐to‐concentration ratio. Although classification of exposure inputs as uncertain or variable is somewhat subjective, food consumption rates and exposure duration are judged to have a predicted variance that is dominated by variability among individuals by age, income, culture, and geographical region. Whereas, biotransfer factors and partition factors are inputs that, to a large extent, involve uncertainty. Using ingestion of fruits, vegetables, grains, dairy products, and meat and soils assumed to be contaminated by hexachlorbenzene (HCB) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) as cases studies, a Monte Carlo analysis is used to explore the relative contribution of uncertainty and variability to overall variance in the estimated distribution of potential dose within the population that consumes homegrown foods. It is found that, when soil concentrations are specified, variances in ratios of dose‐to‐concentration for HCB are equally attributable to uncertainty and variability, whereas for BaP, variance in these ratios is dominated by true uncertainty. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Risk Analysis Wiley

Uncertainty and Variability in Human Exposures to Soil Contaminants Through Home‐Grown Food: A Monte Carlo Assessment

Risk Analysis, Volume 14 (4) – Aug 1, 1994

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1994 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0272-4332
eISSN
1539-6924
D.O.I.
10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00263.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper presents a general model for exposure to homegrown foods that is used with a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the relative contributions of variability (Type A uncertainty) and true uncertainty (Type B uncertainty) to the overall variance in prediction of the dose‐to‐concentration ratio. Although classification of exposure inputs as uncertain or variable is somewhat subjective, food consumption rates and exposure duration are judged to have a predicted variance that is dominated by variability among individuals by age, income, culture, and geographical region. Whereas, biotransfer factors and partition factors are inputs that, to a large extent, involve uncertainty. Using ingestion of fruits, vegetables, grains, dairy products, and meat and soils assumed to be contaminated by hexachlorbenzene (HCB) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) as cases studies, a Monte Carlo analysis is used to explore the relative contribution of uncertainty and variability to overall variance in the estimated distribution of potential dose within the population that consumes homegrown foods. It is found that, when soil concentrations are specified, variances in ratios of dose‐to‐concentration for HCB are equally attributable to uncertainty and variability, whereas for BaP, variance in these ratios is dominated by true uncertainty.

Journal

Risk AnalysisWiley

Published: Aug 1, 1994

References

  • An Investigation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Computer Models
    Iman, Iman; Helton, Helton

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