The Role of Risk Analysis in the Protection of Critical Infrastructures Against Terrorism

The Role of Risk Analysis in the Protection of Critical Infrastructures Against Terrorism 1. INTRODUCTION In 1981, Kaplan and Garrick (1981) posed three fundamental questions that constitute the risk assessment process: What can go wrong? What is the likelihood? and What are the consequences? Needless to say, analyzing the risk of terrorism to critical infrastructures and to answer the third question (assess the consequences) requires an understanding of the causal relationships between the input (an attack) and the output (the consequences). In addition, the increasing intra‐ and interdependencies among the various interconnected infrastructures and other systems must also be well understood and modeled. Note, for example, that the September 11 destruction of the World Trade Center in New York City has adversely affected the airline and travel industries and the economy at large. This imperative understanding of the potential cascading adverse effects from a single act of terrorism cannot be achieved on an ad hoc basis or through brainstorming sessions only. Rather, the complexity of the interdependencies among the nation's infrastructures and the various sectors of the economy require systemic and quantitative risk modeling, assessment, and management efforts. These build on mining all relevant databases so that appropriate modeling and simulation methods and tools can be deployed effectively. Indeed, infrastructure systems http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Risk Analysis Wiley

The Role of Risk Analysis in the Protection of Critical Infrastructures Against Terrorism

Risk Analysis, Volume 22 (3) – Jun 1, 2002

Loading next page...
 
/lp/wiley/the-role-of-risk-analysis-in-the-protection-of-critical-5TSn02qENF
Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0272-4332
eISSN
1539-6924
DOI
10.1111/0272-4332.00055
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

1. INTRODUCTION In 1981, Kaplan and Garrick (1981) posed three fundamental questions that constitute the risk assessment process: What can go wrong? What is the likelihood? and What are the consequences? Needless to say, analyzing the risk of terrorism to critical infrastructures and to answer the third question (assess the consequences) requires an understanding of the causal relationships between the input (an attack) and the output (the consequences). In addition, the increasing intra‐ and interdependencies among the various interconnected infrastructures and other systems must also be well understood and modeled. Note, for example, that the September 11 destruction of the World Trade Center in New York City has adversely affected the airline and travel industries and the economy at large. This imperative understanding of the potential cascading adverse effects from a single act of terrorism cannot be achieved on an ad hoc basis or through brainstorming sessions only. Rather, the complexity of the interdependencies among the nation's infrastructures and the various sectors of the economy require systemic and quantitative risk modeling, assessment, and management efforts. These build on mining all relevant databases so that appropriate modeling and simulation methods and tools can be deployed effectively. Indeed, infrastructure systems

Journal

Risk AnalysisWiley

Published: Jun 1, 2002

There are no references for this article.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create folders to
organize your research

Export folders, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off