1. INTRODUCTION In 1981, Kaplan and Garrick (1981) posed three fundamental questions that constitute the risk assessment process: What can go wrong? What is the likelihood? and What are the consequences? Needless to say, analyzing the risk of terrorism to critical infrastructures and to answer the third question (assess the consequences) requires an understanding of the causal relationships between the input (an attack) and the output (the consequences). In addition, the increasing intra‐ and interdependencies among the various interconnected infrastructures and other systems must also be well understood and modeled. Note, for example, that the September 11 destruction of the World Trade Center in New York City has adversely affected the airline and travel industries and the economy at large. This imperative understanding of the potential cascading adverse effects from a single act of terrorism cannot be achieved on an ad hoc basis or through brainstorming sessions only. Rather, the complexity of the interdependencies among the nation's infrastructures and the various sectors of the economy require systemic and quantitative risk modeling, assessment, and management efforts. These build on mining all relevant databases so that appropriate modeling and simulation methods and tools can be deployed effectively. Indeed, infrastructure systems
Risk Analysis – Wiley
Published: Jun 1, 2002
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