THE ADJUSTMENT OF BETA FORECASTS

THE ADJUSTMENT OF BETA FORECASTS SEPTEMBER 1975 THE ADJUSTMENT OF BETA FORECASTS ROBERT C. KLEMKOSKY AND JOHN D. MARTIN* THE BETA COEFFICIENT of the market model has gained wide acceptance as a relevant measure of risk in portfolio and security analysis. An essential prerequisite for using beta to assess future portfolio risk and return is a reasonable degree of predictability over future time periods. If the portfolio manager cannot predict future beta coefficients, the applicability of this phase of modern capital-market theory is somewhat restricted. Attempts to predict betas using extrapolative models have met with only limited success, especially for individual securities. Blume [1] and Levy [2] found that single security beta coefficients of one period were not good predictors of the corresponding betas in the subsequent period. However, as portfolio size was increased, the stationarity of extrapolated betas improved significantly. A major problem for both single security and portfolio betas was the tendency for relatively high and low beta coefficients to overpredict and underpredict, respectively, the corresponding betas for the subsequent time period. Thus, forecasting accuracy grew progressively worse as beta levels departed significantly from the average. The objectives of this note are to investigate the source of forecast errors of extrapolated http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Journal of Finance Wiley

THE ADJUSTMENT OF BETA FORECASTS

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
1975 The American Finance Association
ISSN
0022-1082
eISSN
1540-6261
DOI
10.1111/j.1540-6261.1975.tb01027.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

SEPTEMBER 1975 THE ADJUSTMENT OF BETA FORECASTS ROBERT C. KLEMKOSKY AND JOHN D. MARTIN* THE BETA COEFFICIENT of the market model has gained wide acceptance as a relevant measure of risk in portfolio and security analysis. An essential prerequisite for using beta to assess future portfolio risk and return is a reasonable degree of predictability over future time periods. If the portfolio manager cannot predict future beta coefficients, the applicability of this phase of modern capital-market theory is somewhat restricted. Attempts to predict betas using extrapolative models have met with only limited success, especially for individual securities. Blume [1] and Levy [2] found that single security beta coefficients of one period were not good predictors of the corresponding betas in the subsequent period. However, as portfolio size was increased, the stationarity of extrapolated betas improved significantly. A major problem for both single security and portfolio betas was the tendency for relatively high and low beta coefficients to overpredict and underpredict, respectively, the corresponding betas for the subsequent time period. Thus, forecasting accuracy grew progressively worse as beta levels departed significantly from the average. The objectives of this note are to investigate the source of forecast errors of extrapolated

Journal

The Journal of FinanceWiley

Published: Sep 1, 1975

References

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