The accuracy of individual and group forecasts from business outlook surveys

The accuracy of individual and group forecasts from business outlook surveys This paper reports on the accuracy of quarterly multiperiod predictions of inflation, real growth, unemployment and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile components. The survey data are highly differentiated; they cover 79 professional forecasters (mostly economists, analysts and corporate executives). Combining corresponding predictions from different sources can result in significant gains; thus the group mean forecasts are on the average over time more accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts. But there is also a moderate degree of consistency in the relative performance of a sufficient number of the survey members, as evidenced in positive rank correlations among ratios of the individual to group root mean square errors. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Forecasting Wiley

The accuracy of individual and group forecasts from business outlook surveys

Journal of Forecasting, Volume 3 (1) – Jan 1, 1984

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1984 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN
0277-6693
eISSN
1099-131X
D.O.I.
10.1002/for.3980030103
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper reports on the accuracy of quarterly multiperiod predictions of inflation, real growth, unemployment and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile components. The survey data are highly differentiated; they cover 79 professional forecasters (mostly economists, analysts and corporate executives). Combining corresponding predictions from different sources can result in significant gains; thus the group mean forecasts are on the average over time more accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts. But there is also a moderate degree of consistency in the relative performance of a sufficient number of the survey members, as evidenced in positive rank correlations among ratios of the individual to group root mean square errors.

Journal

Journal of ForecastingWiley

Published: Jan 1, 1984

References

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