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Abstract: One of the strong factors reflecting Africa's economic backwardness is the low level of industrial development. Not only does the industrialization process appear to have bypassed the continent, there is evidence of de‐industrialization in the case of several countries. This paper seeks to address a set of interrelated questions: To what extent is the growth performance of African economies related to these structural characteristics? More precisely, is there any discernible evidence that GDP growth and overall labour productivity growth of African countries is positively related to how fast their industrial sector is growing? We test out Kaldor's three growth laws: first, that the growth of GDP is positively related to the growth of manufacturing output not simply in a definitional sense (because manufacturing output is a part of GDP) but in a fundamental causal sense related to the production characteristics of manufacturing activity; secondly, that the growth of labour productivity in manufacturing is positively related to manufacturing output growth because of static and dynamic increasing returns to scale (Verdoorn's Law); and thirdly, that there will be a negative relation between labour productivity growth in the economy as a whole and the rate of growth of employment in the non‐manufacturing sector because most activity outside the manufacturing sector is subject to diminishing returns, particularly in land‐based activities such as agriculture and many service activities. The authors’ conclusions are that there is some empirical support for Kaldor's growth laws in respect of the countries of Africa. The growth of GDP seems much more closely associated with the growth of the manufacturing/industrial sector than the agricultural or service sectors. Structural change in favour of industrial activities would almost certainly help to accelerate the growth of GDP and living standards in Africa. Résumé: L’un des principales causes du retard économique de l’Afrique est son faible degré de développement industriel. Le continent semble non seulement avoir été court‐circuité par le processus d’industrialisation, mais il a été démontré que plusieurs pays africains sont en train de se désindustrialiser. Le présent article traite d’une série de questions interdépendantes. Il vise notamment à déterminer dans quelle mesure la performance de croissance des économies africaines est liée à ces caractéristiques structurelles ou, plus précisément, s’il y a une preuve tangible que la progression du PIB et la croissance globale de la productivité de la main d’uvre dans les pays africains sont positivement liées à la rapidité avec laquelle se développe leur secteur industriel. Ses auteurs ont entrepris de tester trois lois de Kaldor sur la croissance. La premiĕre atteste que la croissance du PIB est positivement liée à celle de la production manufacturiĕre, non pas tant en termes de définition uniquement (dans la mesure où cette derniĕre participe au PIB), que dans le sens d’une relation de cause à effet, étant donné que la production est une caractéristique de l’activité manufacturiĕre. La deuxiĕme affirme que la croissance de la productivité de la main d’uvre dans l’industrie manufacturiĕre est positivement liée à la progression de la production manufacturiĕre, en raison de l’augmentation constante ou dynamique des rendements d’échelle (loi de Verdoorn). Enfin, la troisiĕme constate que la relation entre la progression de la productivité de la main d’uvre dans l’économie, en général, et le taux de croissance de l’emploi dans le secteur non manufacturier sera négative, étant donné que le rendement de la plupart des activités hors du secteur manufacturier – notamment celles rattachées aux ressources naturelles, telles que l’agriculture et bon nombre d’activités liées aux services – sera en régression. Les auteurs en concluent que la situation économique des pays africains vient concrĕtement étayer les lois de Kaldor sur la croissance. La progression du PIB semble être plus étroitement liée à la croissance du secteur manufacturier/industriel qu’à celle des secteurs agricole et des services. Les réformes structurelles en faveur des activités industrielles contribueront trĕs certainement à accélérer la croissance du PIB et améliorer plus vite les conditions de vie en Afrique.
African Development Review – Wiley
Published: Dec 1, 2003
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