Statistical measures of foetal growth using linear mixed models applied to the foetal origins hypothesis

Statistical measures of foetal growth using linear mixed models applied to the foetal origins... Statistical models of the relationship between the distribution of each of five foetal dimensions and gestational age are developed based on serial ultrasound biometric data from a prospective longitudinal study in Perth, Western Australia. Both the response variable and the gestational age timescale are transformed to establish an approximately linear relationship within subjects. This relationship is modelled using a linear mixed effects model that accounts for between‐subject heterogeneity by incorporating subject specific random effects for both intercept and gradient. These models are used to motivate three measures of foetal growth: the conditional centile or z‐score of a current measurement given an earlier value for the same measurement; the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of the subject specific random effect gradient (which is shown to be invariant to transformations of location and scale), and the standardized residual at a given gestational age, which characterizes departures from the modelled growth trajectory. We illustrate how these three measures of growth might be applied to subsequent health outcomes in later life by relating growth in foetal abdominal circumference to blood pressure in children from the same cohort at six years of age. Foetuses whose summary measures indicate poor growth in abdominal circumference have higher blood pressure in early childhood, supporting the ‘foetal origins’ hypothesis that many chronic diseases of adulthood have their origins before birth. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Statistics in Medicine Wiley

Statistical measures of foetal growth using linear mixed models applied to the foetal origins hypothesis

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN
0277-6715
eISSN
1097-0258
DOI
10.1002/sim.891
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Statistical models of the relationship between the distribution of each of five foetal dimensions and gestational age are developed based on serial ultrasound biometric data from a prospective longitudinal study in Perth, Western Australia. Both the response variable and the gestational age timescale are transformed to establish an approximately linear relationship within subjects. This relationship is modelled using a linear mixed effects model that accounts for between‐subject heterogeneity by incorporating subject specific random effects for both intercept and gradient. These models are used to motivate three measures of foetal growth: the conditional centile or z‐score of a current measurement given an earlier value for the same measurement; the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of the subject specific random effect gradient (which is shown to be invariant to transformations of location and scale), and the standardized residual at a given gestational age, which characterizes departures from the modelled growth trajectory. We illustrate how these three measures of growth might be applied to subsequent health outcomes in later life by relating growth in foetal abdominal circumference to blood pressure in children from the same cohort at six years of age. Foetuses whose summary measures indicate poor growth in abdominal circumference have higher blood pressure in early childhood, supporting the ‘foetal origins’ hypothesis that many chronic diseases of adulthood have their origins before birth. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Journal

Statistics in MedicineWiley

Published: Nov 30, 2001

References

  • Constructing time‐specific reference ranges
    Royston, Royston
  • A comparison of statistical methods for age‐related reference intervals
    Wright, Wright; Royston, Royston
  • Calculation of unconditional and conditional reference intervals for foetal size and growth from longitudinal measurements
    Royston, Royston
  • Conditional centiles for the quantification of fetal growth
    Owen, Owen; Ogston, Ogston
  • Multilevel times series models with applications to repeated measures data
    Goldstein, Goldstein; Healy, Healy; Rasbash, Rasbash
  • Maternal smoking during pregnancy, birth weight and blood pressure in early childhood
    Blake, Blake; Gurrin, Gurrin; Evans, Evans; Newnham, Newnham; Landau, Landau; Stanley, Stanley; Beilin, Beilin

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