RISK PERCEPTION IN PSYCHOLOGY AND ECONOMICS

RISK PERCEPTION IN PSYCHOLOGY AND ECONOMICS ‘Joan Kenney Professor of Economics, Stanford University. Presidential address to the Western Economic Association, presented June 17, 1981. This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research Grant ONR N00014-7-C-0685 at the Center for Research on Organizational Efficiency, Stanford University. Economic Inquiry Vol. XX, January 1982 ECONOMIC INQUIRY economist Jacob Marschak was a major link between the formal developments of John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern (1947, Appendix, 617-632), which had such great influence on economic theory, and the experimental work of the psychologists (see the papers reprinted in (1974, Volume I) ) . The earliest experiment testing the expected-utility hypothesis seems to be that of Mosteller and Nogee (1951); for a particularly fine study, see Davidson, Suppes, and Siege1 (1957). Herbert Simon’s exploitation of the analogy between information processing in computers and that in human beings has also been very influential. Recently, the controversy over nuclear power and its effects has sharpened interest in the way individuals form risk judgments and act on them. In particular, it has proved very difficult to reconcile changes in public opinion attendant on new events with Bayesian learning models in any form. There has been renewed testing of expected-utility theory; http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Economic Inquiry Wiley

RISK PERCEPTION IN PSYCHOLOGY AND ECONOMICS

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Abstract

‘Joan Kenney Professor of Economics, Stanford University. Presidential address to the Western Economic Association, presented June 17, 1981. This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research Grant ONR N00014-7-C-0685 at the Center for Research on Organizational Efficiency, Stanford University. Economic Inquiry Vol. XX, January 1982 ECONOMIC INQUIRY economist Jacob Marschak was a major link between the formal developments of John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern (1947, Appendix, 617-632), which had such great influence on economic theory, and the experimental work of the psychologists (see the papers reprinted in (1974, Volume I) ) . The earliest experiment testing the expected-utility hypothesis seems to be that of Mosteller and Nogee (1951); for a particularly fine study, see Davidson, Suppes, and Siege1 (1957). Herbert Simon’s exploitation of the analogy between information processing in computers and that in human beings has also been very influential. Recently, the controversy over nuclear power and its effects has sharpened interest in the way individuals form risk judgments and act on them. In particular, it has proved very difficult to reconcile changes in public opinion attendant on new events with Bayesian learning models in any form. There has been renewed testing of expected-utility theory;

Journal

Economic InquiryWiley

Published: Jan 1, 1982

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