Probabilistic prediction in patient management and clinical trials

Probabilistic prediction in patient management and clinical trials It is argued that the provision of accurate and useful probabilistic assessments of future events should be a fundamental task for biostatisticians collaborating in clinical or experimental medicine, and we explore two aspects of obtaining and evaluating such predictions. When covariate information on patients is available, logistic regression and other multivariate techniques are often used to select prognostic factors and create predictive models. An example shows how the explicit aim of prediction needs to be taken into account in such modelling, and how predictive performance may be assessed by decomposition of a scoring rule. Secondly, results from a program that provides pretrial and interim predictions in clinical trials are displayed, bringing together the use of subjective opinion, Bayesian methodology and techniques for evaluating and criticizing predictions. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Statistics in Medicine Wiley

Probabilistic prediction in patient management and clinical trials

Statistics in Medicine, Volume 5 (5) – Sep 1, 1986

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1986 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN
0277-6715
eISSN
1097-0258
D.O.I.
10.1002/sim.4780050506
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

It is argued that the provision of accurate and useful probabilistic assessments of future events should be a fundamental task for biostatisticians collaborating in clinical or experimental medicine, and we explore two aspects of obtaining and evaluating such predictions. When covariate information on patients is available, logistic regression and other multivariate techniques are often used to select prognostic factors and create predictive models. An example shows how the explicit aim of prediction needs to be taken into account in such modelling, and how predictive performance may be assessed by decomposition of a scoring rule. Secondly, results from a program that provides pretrial and interim predictions in clinical trials are displayed, bringing together the use of subjective opinion, Bayesian methodology and techniques for evaluating and criticizing predictions.

Journal

Statistics in MedicineWiley

Published: Sep 1, 1986

References

  • Regression modelling strategies for improved prognostic prediction
    Harrell, Harrell; Lee, Lee; Califf, Califf; Pryor, Pryor; Rosati, Rosati
  • A predictive approach to selecting the size of a clinical trial, based on subjective clinical opinion
    Spiegelhalter, Spiegelhalter; Freedman, Freedman

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