Predicting changes in Fennoscandian vascular‐plant species richness as a result of future climatic change

Predicting changes in Fennoscandian vascular‐plant species richness as a result of future... It is anticipated that future climatic warming following the currently enhanced greenhouse effect will change the distribution limits of many vascular plant species. Using annual accumulated respiration equivalents, calculated from January and July mean temperatures and total annual precipitation, simple presence–absence response surface plots are constructed for 1521 native vascular‐plant species in 229 75×75‐km grid squares within Fennoscandia. The contemporary occurrences in relation to present‐day climate and to predicted changes in climate (and hence annual accumulated respiration equivalents) are used to predict possible future immigrations and extinctions within each grid square. The percentage of potential change in species richness for each grid square is estimated from these predictions. Results from this study suggest a mean increase in species richness per grid square of 26%. Increases in species richness are greatest in the southern parts of the alpine/boreal regions in Fennoscandia. There are ten species that potentially may become extinct in Fennoscandia as a result of predicted climatic warming. Possible conservation strategies to protect such endangered species are outlined. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Biogeography Wiley

Predicting changes in Fennoscandian vascular‐plant species richness as a result of future climatic change

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
1998 Blackwell Science Ltd.
ISSN
0305-0270
eISSN
1365-2699
DOI
10.1046/j.1365-2699.1998.251192.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

It is anticipated that future climatic warming following the currently enhanced greenhouse effect will change the distribution limits of many vascular plant species. Using annual accumulated respiration equivalents, calculated from January and July mean temperatures and total annual precipitation, simple presence–absence response surface plots are constructed for 1521 native vascular‐plant species in 229 75×75‐km grid squares within Fennoscandia. The contemporary occurrences in relation to present‐day climate and to predicted changes in climate (and hence annual accumulated respiration equivalents) are used to predict possible future immigrations and extinctions within each grid square. The percentage of potential change in species richness for each grid square is estimated from these predictions. Results from this study suggest a mean increase in species richness per grid square of 26%. Increases in species richness are greatest in the southern parts of the alpine/boreal regions in Fennoscandia. There are ten species that potentially may become extinct in Fennoscandia as a result of predicted climatic warming. Possible conservation strategies to protect such endangered species are outlined.

Journal

Journal of BiogeographyWiley

Published: Jan 1, 1998

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