Precision of Population Viability Analysis

Precision of Population Viability Analysis Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used in setting conservation policy, there is disagreement about the usefulness of this method. Objections have been raised concerning the precision of predictions in view of the short time series of data available and the sensitivity of estimates of extinction risk to estimated parameters ( Hamilton & Moller 1995 ; Taylor 1995 ; Groom & Pascual 1998 ; Ludwig 1999 ). Beissinger and Westphal (1998) reviewed the use of demographic models for endangered‐species management. They pointed out that poor data cause difficulties in parameter estimation, which in turn lead to unreliable estimates of extinction risk. There are additional problems with model validation, especially if all available data have been used to estimate parameters. Beissinger and Westphal (1998) recommend that PVA be used to evaluate relative rather than absolute extinction risk, that projections be made only over short time periods, and that simple models be used rather than complicated ones. Fieberg and Ellner (2000) showed that values of the quasi‐extinction probability—the probability of decline to a lower population threshold—for a simple model range between 80% and 5% as the value of the intrinsic growth rate r varies between −0.03 and +0.02. Such http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Conservation Biology Wiley

Precision of Population Viability Analysis

Loading next page...
 
/lp/wiley/precision-of-population-viability-analysis-TRB16EycDw
Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0888-8892
eISSN
1523-1739
DOI
10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.00553.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used in setting conservation policy, there is disagreement about the usefulness of this method. Objections have been raised concerning the precision of predictions in view of the short time series of data available and the sensitivity of estimates of extinction risk to estimated parameters ( Hamilton & Moller 1995 ; Taylor 1995 ; Groom & Pascual 1998 ; Ludwig 1999 ). Beissinger and Westphal (1998) reviewed the use of demographic models for endangered‐species management. They pointed out that poor data cause difficulties in parameter estimation, which in turn lead to unreliable estimates of extinction risk. There are additional problems with model validation, especially if all available data have been used to estimate parameters. Beissinger and Westphal (1998) recommend that PVA be used to evaluate relative rather than absolute extinction risk, that projections be made only over short time periods, and that simple models be used rather than complicated ones. Fieberg and Ellner (2000) showed that values of the quasi‐extinction probability—the probability of decline to a lower population threshold—for a simple model range between 80% and 5% as the value of the intrinsic growth rate r varies between −0.03 and +0.02. Such

Journal

Conservation BiologyWiley

Published: Feb 1, 2002

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create folders to
organize your research

Export folders, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off