Precision and accuracy of judgmental estimation

Precision and accuracy of judgmental estimation Whereas probabilistic calibration has been a central normative concept of accuracy in previous research on interval estimates, we suggest here that normative approaches for the evaluation of judgmental estimates should consider the communicative interaction between the individuals who produce the judgments and those who receive or use them for making decisions. We analyze precision and error in judgment and consider the role of the accuracy–informativeness trade‐off (Yaniv and Foster, 1995) in the communication of estimates. The results shed light on puzzling findings reported earlier in the literature concerning the calibration of subjective confidence intervals. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Wiley

Precision and accuracy of judgmental estimation

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN
0894-3257
eISSN
1099-0771
DOI
10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199703)10:1<21::AID-BDM243>3.0.CO;2-G
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Whereas probabilistic calibration has been a central normative concept of accuracy in previous research on interval estimates, we suggest here that normative approaches for the evaluation of judgmental estimates should consider the communicative interaction between the individuals who produce the judgments and those who receive or use them for making decisions. We analyze precision and error in judgment and consider the role of the accuracy–informativeness trade‐off (Yaniv and Foster, 1995) in the communication of estimates. The results shed light on puzzling findings reported earlier in the literature concerning the calibration of subjective confidence intervals. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Journal

Journal of Behavioral Decision MakingWiley

Published: Mar 1, 1997

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