The following issue is raised lightheartedly every time decision analysis is the topic of conversation: If decision analysis is so wonderful, why donât decision analysts use it on themselves? 1 propose the question as a topic worthy of serious study. *Subject Area: Decision Analysis. Bell 53s In my own case Iâm sure my decision making is substantially better than it would have been had I never studied the subject. Iâm careful to avoid sunk-cost traps, and I believe I have a sensible insurance portfolio. But these are rules of thumb gleaned from general association with the field, not the result of the kind of analysis we see in the literature, with a tree, probabilities, and multiattribute preferences. Iâve made three semiserious attempts to âheal myselfâ: on questions of job selection, house selection, and school selection (for my daughter). In each case the analysis taught me something valuable about the problem even though two analyses were performed with a view to supporting a conclusion Iâd already reached. This is not much of a track record (how many decision analysts have a better one?), particularly when there are some fairly major decisions that might benefit from analysis, such as career
Decision Sciences – Wiley
Published: Oct 1, 1982
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