POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO DECISION ANALYSIS *

POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO DECISION ANALYSIS * The following issue is raised lightheartedly every time decision analysis is the topic of conversation: If decision analysis is so wonderful, why don’t decision analysts use it on themselves? 1 propose the question as a topic worthy of serious study. *Subject Area: Decision Analysis. Bell 53s In my own case I’m sure my decision making is substantially better than it would have been had I never studied the subject. I’m careful to avoid sunk-cost traps, and I believe I have a sensible insurance portfolio. But these are rules of thumb gleaned from general association with the field, not the result of the kind of analysis we see in the literature, with a tree, probabilities, and multiattribute preferences. I’ve made three semiserious attempts to “heal myself”: on questions of job selection, house selection, and school selection (for my daughter). In each case the analysis taught me something valuable about the problem even though two analyses were performed with a view to supporting a conclusion I’d already reached. This is not much of a track record (how many decision analysts have a better one?), particularly when there are some fairly major decisions that might benefit from analysis, such as career http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Decision Sciences Wiley

POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO DECISION ANALYSIS *

Decision Sciences, Volume 13 (4) – Oct 1, 1982

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
1982 by the American Institute for Decision Sciences
ISSN
0011-7315
eISSN
1540-5915
DOI
10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb01177.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The following issue is raised lightheartedly every time decision analysis is the topic of conversation: If decision analysis is so wonderful, why don’t decision analysts use it on themselves? 1 propose the question as a topic worthy of serious study. *Subject Area: Decision Analysis. Bell 53s In my own case I’m sure my decision making is substantially better than it would have been had I never studied the subject. I’m careful to avoid sunk-cost traps, and I believe I have a sensible insurance portfolio. But these are rules of thumb gleaned from general association with the field, not the result of the kind of analysis we see in the literature, with a tree, probabilities, and multiattribute preferences. I’ve made three semiserious attempts to “heal myself”: on questions of job selection, house selection, and school selection (for my daughter). In each case the analysis taught me something valuable about the problem even though two analyses were performed with a view to supporting a conclusion I’d already reached. This is not much of a track record (how many decision analysts have a better one?), particularly when there are some fairly major decisions that might benefit from analysis, such as career

Journal

Decision SciencesWiley

Published: Oct 1, 1982

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