Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range

Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range Global warming is expected to have a major impact on plant distributions, an issue of key importance in biological conservation. However, very few models are able to predict species distribution accurately, although we know species respond individually to climate change. Here we show, using a process‐based model (PHENOFIT), that tree species distributions can be predicted precisely if the biological processes of survival and reproductive success only are incorporated as a function of phenology. These predictions showed great predictive power when tested against present distributions of two North American species – quaking aspen and sugar maple – indicating that on a broad scale, the fundamental niche of trees coincides with their realized niche. Phenology is shown here to be a major determinant of plant species range and should therefore be used to assess the consequences of global warming on plant distributions, and the spread of alien plant species. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Ecology Letters Wiley

Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range

Ecology Letters, Volume 4 (5) – Aug 14, 2001

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2001 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
1461-023X
eISSN
1461-0248
DOI
10.1046/j.1461-0248.2001.00261.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Global warming is expected to have a major impact on plant distributions, an issue of key importance in biological conservation. However, very few models are able to predict species distribution accurately, although we know species respond individually to climate change. Here we show, using a process‐based model (PHENOFIT), that tree species distributions can be predicted precisely if the biological processes of survival and reproductive success only are incorporated as a function of phenology. These predictions showed great predictive power when tested against present distributions of two North American species – quaking aspen and sugar maple – indicating that on a broad scale, the fundamental niche of trees coincides with their realized niche. Phenology is shown here to be a major determinant of plant species range and should therefore be used to assess the consequences of global warming on plant distributions, and the spread of alien plant species.

Journal

Ecology LettersWiley

Published: Aug 14, 2001

References

  • Climate and the distribution of Fallopia japonica : use of an introduced species to test the predictive capacity of response surfaces.
    Beerling, Beerling; Huntley, Huntley; Bailey, Bailey
  • A unified model for the budburst of trees.
    Chuine, Chuine
  • A modelling analysis of the genetic variation of phenology between tree populations.
    Chuine, Chuine; Mignot, Mignot; Belmonte, Belmonte
  • Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States.
    Iverson, Iverson; Prasad, Prasad
  • Development of a simulation model for studying kiwi fruit orchard management.
    Lescourret, Lescourret; Blecher, Blecher; Habib, Habib; Chadboeuf, Chadboeuf; Agostini, Agostini; Iiiy, Iiiy; Vaissière, Vaissière; Poggi, Poggi
  • On the relationship between niche and distribution.
    Pulliam, Pulliam
  • A continental phenology model for monitoring vegetation responses to interannual climatic variability.
    White, White; Thornton, Thornton; Running, Running

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