On the evaluation of one‐sided evidence

On the evaluation of one‐sided evidence We examine predictions and judgments of confidence based on one‐sided evidence. Some subjects saw arguments for only one side of a legal dispute while other subjects (called ‘jurors’) saw arguments for both sides. Subjects predicted the number of jurors who favored the plaintiff in each case. Subjects who saw only one side made predictions that were biased in favor of that side. Furthermore, they were more confident but generally less accurate than subjects who saw both sides. The results indicate that people do not compensate sufficiently for missing information even when it is painfully obvious that the information available to them is incomplete. A simple manipulation that required subjects to evaluate the relative strength of the opponent's side greatly reduced the tendency to underweigh missing evidence. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Wiley

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN
0894-3257
eISSN
1099-0771
D.O.I.
10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199603)9:1<59::AID-BDM216>3.0.CO;2-V
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We examine predictions and judgments of confidence based on one‐sided evidence. Some subjects saw arguments for only one side of a legal dispute while other subjects (called ‘jurors’) saw arguments for both sides. Subjects predicted the number of jurors who favored the plaintiff in each case. Subjects who saw only one side made predictions that were biased in favor of that side. Furthermore, they were more confident but generally less accurate than subjects who saw both sides. The results indicate that people do not compensate sufficiently for missing information even when it is painfully obvious that the information available to them is incomplete. A simple manipulation that required subjects to evaluate the relative strength of the opponent's side greatly reduced the tendency to underweigh missing evidence.

Journal

Journal of Behavioral Decision MakingWiley

Published: Mar 1, 1996

References

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