North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Global Change Biology Wiley

North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
1354-1013
eISSN
1365-2486
D.O.I.
10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00685.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.

Journal

Global Change BiologyWiley

Published: Nov 1, 2003

References

  • Optimal temperature for growth and feed conversion of immature cod ( Gadus morhua L.)
    Bjornsson, Bjornsson; Steinarsson, Steinarsson; Oddgeirsson, Oddgeirsson
  • Growth models and their use in ecological modelling
    Gamito, Gamito
  • Long‐term changes in zooplankton and the climate of the North Atlantic
    Planque, Planque; Taylor, Taylor
  • An evaluation of the stock structure of North sea cod, haddock and whiting since 1920, together with a consideration of the impacts of fisheries and predation effects on their biomass and recruitment
    Pope, Pope; Macer, Macer
  • Year‐class strengths of zooplankton in the North Sea and their relation to cod and herring abundance
    Rothschild, Rothschild
  • The effects of temperature and size on growth and mortality of cod larvae
    Steinarsson, Steinarsson; Björnsson, Björnsson

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