Local extinction of British farmland birds and the prediction of further loss

Local extinction of British farmland birds and the prediction of further loss 1. The populations of many UK farmland birds declined between 1970 and 1990, frequently accompanied by contractions in breeding ranges. Ornithological atlas data, land use data and environmental data at the scale of 10‐km squares were used to investigate the relationship between local extinctions and habitat suitability for six species, and to predict where future losses are most likely. 2. For each species we tested the hypothesis that local extinctions were concentrated in environments that were inherently less suitable. We also tested the hypothesis that spatial patterns of loss were not independent between species due to their concurrence in the same habitats. 3. Multivariate analyses (PCA) showed that areas where each species became extinct between 1970 and 1990 were more similar in land use type, climate and topography to areas where a species was never present than those where it was retained; local extinction was more likely in less suitable environments. Multiple logistic regression showed that for five of the six species the environmental gradient best predicting presence or absence in 1970 was also that best predicting loss between 1970 and 1990. For the six species studied, local extinctions were least likely in lowland arable areas. 4. For any pair of species, local extinctions were more frequent outside the area of overlap of the two species' ranges than inside. Within the area of overlap, species tended to be lost from the same squares. For each species, likelihood of local extinction declined with increasing number of the other five species present. 5. We used model parameters to map the probability of future local extinctions of the six species considered, allowing the identification of key areas for conservation management at a spatial scale appropriate to agri‐economic incentives. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Applied Ecology Wiley

Local extinction of British farmland birds and the prediction of further loss

Journal of Applied Ecology, Volume 37 (5) – Oct 1, 2000

Loading next page...
 
/lp/wiley/local-extinction-of-british-farmland-birds-and-the-prediction-of-mgli09w6ca
Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2000 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0021-8901
eISSN
1365-2664
D.O.I.
10.1046/j.1365-2664.2000.00549.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

1. The populations of many UK farmland birds declined between 1970 and 1990, frequently accompanied by contractions in breeding ranges. Ornithological atlas data, land use data and environmental data at the scale of 10‐km squares were used to investigate the relationship between local extinctions and habitat suitability for six species, and to predict where future losses are most likely. 2. For each species we tested the hypothesis that local extinctions were concentrated in environments that were inherently less suitable. We also tested the hypothesis that spatial patterns of loss were not independent between species due to their concurrence in the same habitats. 3. Multivariate analyses (PCA) showed that areas where each species became extinct between 1970 and 1990 were more similar in land use type, climate and topography to areas where a species was never present than those where it was retained; local extinction was more likely in less suitable environments. Multiple logistic regression showed that for five of the six species the environmental gradient best predicting presence or absence in 1970 was also that best predicting loss between 1970 and 1990. For the six species studied, local extinctions were least likely in lowland arable areas. 4. For any pair of species, local extinctions were more frequent outside the area of overlap of the two species' ranges than inside. Within the area of overlap, species tended to be lost from the same squares. For each species, likelihood of local extinction declined with increasing number of the other five species present. 5. We used model parameters to map the probability of future local extinctions of the six species considered, allowing the identification of key areas for conservation management at a spatial scale appropriate to agri‐economic incentives.

Journal

Journal of Applied EcologyWiley

Published: Oct 1, 2000

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create folders to
organize your research

Export folders, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off