Interest Rate Expectations Versus Forward Rates: Evidence From an Expectations Survey

Interest Rate Expectations Versus Forward Rates: Evidence From an Expectations Survey FOLLOWING HICKS [9] AND LUTZ [11], economists have developed a substantial literature relating the forward interest rates implied by currently prevailing rates on debts of differing maturity to market participants' expectations of interest rates in the future. Hicks suggested that implied forward rates might differ from the corresponding expected future rates by a liquidity premium, or term premium, and more recently Stiglitz [19] and others have formalized how market participants' risk aversion would give rise to such a premium. While in principle the premium could be either positive or negative, the usual upward slope of the yield curve suggests a positive premium that itself varies positively with the debt's term to maturity. Kessel [10] subsequently suggested that the premium for a given maturity might vary with real economic activity, and Culbertson [2] argued that relative outside debt supply quantities should also affect the premium. More recently Nelson [16] offered an explanation for the premium even in the absence of risk aversion, and Friedman [5] related changes in the premium to shifts in wealth ownership among heterogenous investors. An accompanying empirical literature has repeatedly tested each of these various hypotheses about forward rates and expected future rates, but usually http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Journal of Finance Wiley

Interest Rate Expectations Versus Forward Rates: Evidence From an Expectations Survey

The Journal of Finance, Volume 34 (4) – Sep 1, 1979

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
1979 The American Finance Association
ISSN
0022-1082
eISSN
1540-6261
DOI
10.1111/j.1540-6261.1979.tb03449.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

FOLLOWING HICKS [9] AND LUTZ [11], economists have developed a substantial literature relating the forward interest rates implied by currently prevailing rates on debts of differing maturity to market participants' expectations of interest rates in the future. Hicks suggested that implied forward rates might differ from the corresponding expected future rates by a liquidity premium, or term premium, and more recently Stiglitz [19] and others have formalized how market participants' risk aversion would give rise to such a premium. While in principle the premium could be either positive or negative, the usual upward slope of the yield curve suggests a positive premium that itself varies positively with the debt's term to maturity. Kessel [10] subsequently suggested that the premium for a given maturity might vary with real economic activity, and Culbertson [2] argued that relative outside debt supply quantities should also affect the premium. More recently Nelson [16] offered an explanation for the premium even in the absence of risk aversion, and Friedman [5] related changes in the premium to shifts in wealth ownership among heterogenous investors. An accompanying empirical literature has repeatedly tested each of these various hypotheses about forward rates and expected future rates, but usually

Journal

The Journal of FinanceWiley

Published: Sep 1, 1979

References

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