Integrating Uncertainty and Interindividual Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment

Integrating Uncertainty and Interindividual Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment An integrated, quantitative approach to incorporating both uncertainty and interindividual variability into risk prediction models is described. Individual risk R is treated as a variable distributed in both an uncertainty dimension and a variability dimension, whereas population risk I (the number of additional cases caused by R) is purely uncertain. I is shown to follow a compound Poisson‐binomial distribution, which in low‐level risk contexts can often be approximated well by a corresponding compound Poisson distribution. The proposed analytic framework is illustrated with an application’to cancer risk assessment for a California population exposed to 1,2‐dibromo‐3‐chloropropane from ground water. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Risk Analysis Wiley

Integrating Uncertainty and Interindividual Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment

Risk Analysis, Volume 7 (4) – Dec 1, 1987

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1987 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0272-4332
eISSN
1539-6924
D.O.I.
10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00480.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

An integrated, quantitative approach to incorporating both uncertainty and interindividual variability into risk prediction models is described. Individual risk R is treated as a variable distributed in both an uncertainty dimension and a variability dimension, whereas population risk I (the number of additional cases caused by R) is purely uncertain. I is shown to follow a compound Poisson‐binomial distribution, which in low‐level risk contexts can often be approximated well by a corresponding compound Poisson distribution. The proposed analytic framework is illustrated with an application’to cancer risk assessment for a California population exposed to 1,2‐dibromo‐3‐chloropropane from ground water.

Journal

Risk AnalysisWiley

Published: Dec 1, 1987

References

  • A General Guideline for Management of Risk from Carcinogens
    Milvy, Milvy

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