The impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 was modelled for 31 temperate and tropical grassland sites, using the CENTURY model. Climate change increased net primary production, except in cold desert steppe regions, and CO2 increased production everywhere. Climate change caused soil carbon to decrease overall, with a loss of 4 Pg from global grasslands after 50 years. Combined climate change and elevated CO2 increased production and reduced global grassland C losses to 2 Pg, with tropical savannas becoming small sinks for soil C. Detection of statistically significant change in plant production would require a 16% change in measured plant production because of high year to year variability in plant production. Most of the predicted changes in plant production are less than 10%.
Global Change Biology – Wiley
Published: Feb 1, 1995
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