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Abstract: For the last two decades,most countries in sub‐Saharan Africa have been liberalizing their economies,and agricultural markets in particular.The reforms were envisaged to improve the agricultural sector terms of trade and prices received by producers as a means of stimulating production and growth.This paper analyses the effects of market reforms on the evolution and volatility of producer prices in Kenya.An autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic in mean (ARCH‐M)regression model is applied to analyse monthly producer prices for a 15‐year period.The periods 1985–91 and 1992–99 represent the pre‐reform and reform periods,respectively.Milk and maize are used to represent food items while coffee and tea represent traded non‐food commodities.Real producer prices for coffee,tea and maize significantly declined during the reform period while milk prices increased.Results also indicate that market reforms were generally associated with higher volatility of commodity prices,although there are inter‐commodity differences.These price developments could be attributed to sequencing problems and the intermittent nature of market reforms as well as limited private sector participation in agricultural markets.International trends in agricultural commodity prices are also shown to have played a major role,especially for traded products.Policy implications with regard to smallholder agricultural development in a liberalized market environment in Kenya and in the wider context of sub‐Saharan Africa are highlighted. Résumé: Au cours de ces deux dernières décennies, la plupart des'pays d’Afrique subsaharienne ont libéralisé leur économie et leurs marchés agricoles, en particulier. Les réformes étaient censées améliorer les termes de l’échange du secteur agricole et les prix aux producteurs pour stimuler la production et la croissance. Le présent article analyse les effets de la réforme du marché sur l’évolution et la volatilité des prix à la production au Kenya. Ses auteurs se servent d’un modèle autorégressif de régression conditionnelle hétéroscédastique (ARCH‐M) pour analyser la production mensuelle de riz sur une quinzaine d’années, la période allant de 1985 à 1991 et celle comprise entre 1992 et 1999 représentant les années de pré‐réforme et de réforme, respectivement. Ils utilisent le lait et le maïs pour représenter les produits alimentaires, et le café et le thé pour représenter les produits commercialisés non alimentaires. Les résultats obtenus montrent que les prix réels au producteur du café, du thé et du maïs ont sensiblement baissé pendant les années de réforme, alors que le prix du lait a augmenté. Ils montrent, par ailleurs, que la libéralisation de l’économie s’accompagne généralement d’une plus grande volatilité des prix des produits de base, malgré les écarts enregistrés entre les produits. Cette évolution du cours des produits de base peut être attribuée non seulement aux problèmes de séquençage et au caractère intermittent des réformes libérales, mais aussi à l’intervention limitée du secteur privé sur les marchés agricoles. Le présent article montre, en outre, que l’évolution sur le marché international des prix des produits agricoles est d’une importance capitale – notamment pour les produits commercialisés. Il met également l’accent sur l’incidence que les orientations politiques nationales peuvent avoir sur le développement des petites exploitations agricoles dans un environnement commercial libéralisé au Kenya, en particulier, et en Afrique subsaharienne, en général.
African Development Review – Wiley
Published: Dec 1, 2003
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