Does an interagency meeting in Washington imply uncertainty?

Does an interagency meeting in Washington imply uncertainty? Keith Beven* Environmental Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK *Correspondence to: Keith Beven, Environmental Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK. E-mail: k.beven@lancaster.ac.uk †With acknowledgements to Smith. In August 2003 an international meeting was convened at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in Washington by the Federal Working Group on Uncertainty and Parameter Estimation, a subgroup of the federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM). About 100 participants had the opportunity to talk about uncertainty in environmental modelling for 3 days. They came from a wide range of backgrounds, interested in modelling hydrological, sediment and pollutant transport and, to a more limited extent, ecological processes and impacts. A variety of uncertainty estimation techniques were presented for a wide range of application areas —ranging from those that are still computationally constrained by model run times, to those where extensive Monte Carlo simulation is possible. The aim was to allow cross-communication about the techniques available across disciplines, and to inform the process, already under way, of developing uncertainty routines for interagency environmental modelling systems. However, it was clear from this meeting that a variety of techniques are available without any clear guidelines about which might be appropriate for a given http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Hydrological Processes Wiley

Does an interagency meeting in Washington imply uncertainty?

Hydrological Processes, Volume 18 (9) – Jun 30, 2004

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN
0885-6087
eISSN
1099-1085
D.O.I.
10.1002/hyp.5573
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Keith Beven* Environmental Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK *Correspondence to: Keith Beven, Environmental Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK. E-mail: k.beven@lancaster.ac.uk †With acknowledgements to Smith. In August 2003 an international meeting was convened at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in Washington by the Federal Working Group on Uncertainty and Parameter Estimation, a subgroup of the federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM). About 100 participants had the opportunity to talk about uncertainty in environmental modelling for 3 days. They came from a wide range of backgrounds, interested in modelling hydrological, sediment and pollutant transport and, to a more limited extent, ecological processes and impacts. A variety of uncertainty estimation techniques were presented for a wide range of application areas —ranging from those that are still computationally constrained by model run times, to those where extensive Monte Carlo simulation is possible. The aim was to allow cross-communication about the techniques available across disciplines, and to inform the process, already under way, of developing uncertainty routines for interagency environmental modelling systems. However, it was clear from this meeting that a variety of techniques are available without any clear guidelines about which might be appropriate for a given

Journal

Hydrological ProcessesWiley

Published: Jun 30, 2004

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