Deterministic chaos in models of human behavior: Methodological issues and experimental results

Deterministic chaos in models of human behavior: Methodological issues and experimental results Recent work has shown that several well‐known models in the system dynamics literature contain previously unsuspected regimes of deterministic chaos. Two of the most extensively analyzed are Sterman's model of the economic long wave and the production‐distribution model of the Beer Distribution Game. The significance of these theoretical developments hinges on whether the chaotic regimes lie in the realistic region of parameter space. There are also questions regarding the descriptive accuracy of models of human systems that exhibit chaos. Because of data limitations and the inability to conduct controlled experiments, empirical studies at the aggregate level are not likely to resolve these questions. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png System Dynamics Review Wiley

Deterministic chaos in models of human behavior: Methodological issues and experimental results

System Dynamics Review, Volume 4 (1‐2) – Jan 1, 1988

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1988 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0883-7066
eISSN
1099-1727
DOI
10.1002/sdr.4260040109
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Recent work has shown that several well‐known models in the system dynamics literature contain previously unsuspected regimes of deterministic chaos. Two of the most extensively analyzed are Sterman's model of the economic long wave and the production‐distribution model of the Beer Distribution Game. The significance of these theoretical developments hinges on whether the chaotic regimes lie in the realistic region of parameter space. There are also questions regarding the descriptive accuracy of models of human systems that exhibit chaos. Because of data limitations and the inability to conduct controlled experiments, empirical studies at the aggregate level are not likely to resolve these questions.

Journal

System Dynamics ReviewWiley

Published: Jan 1, 1988

References

  • Judgement and Choice
    Hogarth, R. M.
  • Problems in Industrial Dynamics
  • Interaction of Trip Decisions and Traffic Systems Dynamics
    Mahmassani, H.; Herman, R.
  • Individual Decisions and Collective Effects in a Simulated Traffic System
    Mahmassani, H.; Chang, G.; Herman, R.

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