Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
R. Mannix, L. Lee, E. Fleegler (2013)
Red State Blue StateAcademic Emergency Medicine, 20
(2009)
Package lme4
L. Sigelman (1982)
The Nonvoting Voter in Voting ResearchAmerican Journal of Political Science, 26
Royce Carroll, Jeffrey Lewis, James Lo, K. Poole, H. Rosenthal (2008)
Measuring Bias and Uncertainty in DW-NOMINATE Ideal Point Estimates via the Parametric BootstrapPolitical Analysis, 17
G. Kernell (2009)
Giving Order to Districts: Estimating Voter Distributions with National Election ReturnsPolitical Analysis, 17
Christopher Achen (1975)
Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey ResponseAmerican Political Science Review, 69
R. Schutt (2010)
Topics in model-based population inference
Benjamin Page, R. Shapiro (1992)
The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences
Michael McDonald (2007)
The True Electorate A Cross-Validation of Voter Registration Files and Election Survey DemographicsPublic Opinion Quarterly, 71
R. Bernstein, A. Chadha, R. Montjoy (2001)
Overreporting voting: why it happens and why it matters.Public opinion quarterly, 65 1
J. Hilbe (2009)
Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical ModelsJournal of Statistical Software, 30
E. Carmines, J. Stimson (1989)
Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics
Michael Boss (1974)
Economic theory of democracyPublic Choice, 19
R. Wedderburn (1974)
Quasi-likelihood functions, generalized linear models, and the Gauss-Newton methodBiometrika, 61
M. Fiorina, S. Abrams (2009)
Disconnect: The Breakdown of Representation in American Politics
A. Gelman (2008)
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do
Larry Bartels (2000)
Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996American Journal of Political Science, 44
S. Rosenstone, J. Hansen (1993)
Mobilization, participation, and democracy in America
S. Jessee (2009)
Spatial Voting in the 2004 Presidential ElectionAmerican Political Science Review, 103
P. Converse (2004)
The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics
G. Selznick, V. Key, Milton Cummings (1970)
The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936-1960.American Sociological Review, 35
Jeffrey Lax, J. Phillips (2009)
Gay Rights in the States: Public Opinion and Policy ResponsivenessAmerican Political Science Review, 103
P. Abramson, William Claggett (1984)
Race-Related Differences in Self-Reported and Validated TurnoutThe Journal of Politics, 46
Jesús Baigorri-Jalón, María Fernández-Sánchez (2010)
Understanding High-level Interpreting in the Cold War: Preliminary notesThe Forum, 8
Matthew Levendusky, J. Pope, S. Jackman (2008)
Measuring District-Level Partisanship with Implications for the Analysis of U.S. Elections*The Journal of Politics, 70
I. Argyros, S. Hilout (2011)
On the Gauss–Newton methodJournal of Applied Mathematics and Computing, 35
A. Gelman, Daniel Lee, Yair Ghitza (2010)
Public Opinion on Health Care ReformThe Forum, 8
John Katosh, M. Traugott (1981)
The Consequences of Validated and Self-Reported Voting MeasuresPublic Opinion Quarterly, 45
A. Campbell, P. Converse, Warren Miller, Donald Stokes (1960)
The American voterAmerican Journal of Psychology, 74
B. Berelson, P. Lazarsfeld, W. McPhee (1954)
Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign
C. Cassel (2003)
Overreporting And Electoral Participation ResearchAmerican Politics Research, 31
Joseph Bafumi, Michael Herron (2010)
Leapfrog Representation and Extremism: A Study of American Voters and Their Members in CongressAmerican Political Science Review, 104
S. Verba, K. Schlozman, Henry Brady (1996)
Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics
S. Ansolabehere, P. Jones (2010)
Constituents’ Responses to Congressional Roll‐Call VotingAmerican Journal of Political Science, 54
A. Gelman (2007)
Struggles with survey weighting and regression modelingQuality Engineering, 53
D. Green, Bradley Palmquist, E. Schickler (2002)
Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters
A. Gelman, Boris Shor, Joseph Bafumi, David Park (2005)
Rich State, Poor State, Red State, Blue State: What's the Matter with Connecticut?
B. Silver, B. Anderson, P. Abramson (1986)
Who Overreports Voting?American Political Science Review, 80
Michiel Vries (2003)
The Macro PolityActa Politica, 38
Joshua Clinton, S. Jackman, D. Rivers (2004)
The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call DataAmerican Political Science Review, 98
R. Putnam (2000)
Bowling alone: the collapse and revival of American community
D. Anderson (1987)
The Decline of American Political Parties: 1952–1984 . By Martin P. Wattenberg. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1986. Pp. xiv, 224. $15.00 cloth, $7.95 paper.)The Journal of Politics, 49
S. Lipovetsky (2005)
Generalized Latent Variable Modeling: Multilevel,Longitudinal, and Structural Equation ModelsTechnometrics, 47
A. Gerber, Donald Green (2000)
The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field ExperimentAmerican Political Science Review, 94
Jeffrey Lax, J. Phillips (2009)
How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in the StatesAmerican Journal of Political Science, 53
(2010)
10 We describe health care opinions elsewhere
(1997)
“ Poststratification into Many Categories Using Hierarchical Logistic Regression . ”
T. Skocpol (2003)
Diminished Democracy: From Membership to Management in American Civic Life
Norman Luttbeg (1993)
The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences . By Benjamin I. Page and Robert Y. Shapiro. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992. Pp. 489. $59.95 hard, $19.95 paper.)The Journal of Politics, 55
M. Wattenberg (1985)
The Decline of American Political Parties 1952-1994
Michael McDonald, Samuel Popkin (2001)
The Myth of the Vanishing VoterAmerican Political Science Review, 95
Gabriel Lenz (2009)
Andrew Gelman, David Park, Boris Shor, Joseph Bafumi, and Jeronimo Cortina. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They DoPublic Opinion Quarterly, 73
S. Ansolabehere, Jonathan Rodden, J. Snyder (2008)
The Strength of Issues: Using Multiple Measures to Gauge Preference Stability, Ideological Constraint, and Issue VotingAmerican Political Science Review, 102
D. Rucinski (1994)
The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion.Psyccritiques, 39
Jonathan Kastellec, Eduardo Leoni (2007)
Using Graphs Instead of Tables in Political SciencePerspectives on Politics, 5
M. Fiorina (1981)
Retrospective voting in American national elections
Kari Lock, A. Gelman (2010)
Bayesian Combination of State Polls and Election ForecastsPolitical Analysis, 18
David Park, A. Gelman, Joseph Bafumi (2004)
Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State-Level Estimates from National PollsPolitical Analysis, 12
Using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP), we estimate voter turnout and vote choice within deeply interacted subgroups: subsets of the population that are defined by multiple demographic and geographic characteristics. This article lays out the models and statistical procedures we use, along with the steps required to fit the model for the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. Though MRP is an increasingly popular method, we improve upon it in numerous ways: deeper levels of covariate interaction, allowing for nonlinearity and nonmonotonicity, accounting for unequal inclusion probabilities that are conveyed in survey weights, postestimation adjustments to turnout and voting levels, and informative multidimensional graphical displays as a form of model checking. We use a series of examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our method, including an illustration of turnout and vote choice as subgroups become increasingly detailed, and an analysis of both vote choice changes and turnout changes from 2004 to 2008.
American Journal of Political Science – Wiley
Published: Jul 1, 2013
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.