Data‐Driven Identification Constraints for DSGE Models

Data‐Driven Identification Constraints for DSGE Models We propose imposing data‐driven identification constraints to alleviate the multimodality problem arising in the estimation of poorly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under non‐informative prior distributions. We also devise an iterative procedure based on the posterior density of the parameters for finding these constraints. An empirical application to the Smets and Wouters () model demonstrates the properties of the estimation method, and shows how the problem of multimodal posterior distributions caused by parameter redundancy is eliminated by identification constraints. Out‐of‐sample forecast comparisons as well as Bayes factors lend support to the constrained model. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics Wiley

Data‐Driven Identification Constraints for DSGE Models

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Publisher
Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 The Department of Economics, University of Oxford and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
ISSN
0305-9049
eISSN
1468-0084
D.O.I.
10.1111/obes.12217
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We propose imposing data‐driven identification constraints to alleviate the multimodality problem arising in the estimation of poorly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under non‐informative prior distributions. We also devise an iterative procedure based on the posterior density of the parameters for finding these constraints. An empirical application to the Smets and Wouters () model demonstrates the properties of the estimation method, and shows how the problem of multimodal posterior distributions caused by parameter redundancy is eliminated by identification constraints. Out‐of‐sample forecast comparisons as well as Bayes factors lend support to the constrained model.

Journal

Oxford Bulletin of Economics & StatisticsWiley

Published: Jan 1, 2018

References

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