Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050

Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European... The rapidly increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may lead to significant changes in regional and seasonal climate patterns. Such changes can strongly influence the diversity and distribution of species and, therefore, affect ecosystems and biodiversity. To assess these changes we developed a model, called euromove. The model uses climate data from 1990 to 2050 as compiled from the image 2 model, and determines climate envelopes for about 1400 plant species by multiple logistic regression analysis. The climate envelopes were applied to the projected climate to obtain predictions about plant diversity and distributions by 2050. For each European grid cell, euromove calculates which species would still occur in forecasted future climate conditions and which not. The results show major changes in biodiversity by 2050. On average, 32% of the European plant species that were present in a cell in 1990 would disappear from that cell. The area, in which 32% or more of the 1990 species will disappear, takes up 44% of the modelled European area. Individual responses of the plant species to the forecasted climate change were diverse. In reviewing possible future trends, we found that plant species, in general, would find their current climate envelopes further northeast by 2050, shifting ranges that were comparable with those ranges in other studies. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Global Change Biology Wiley

Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050

Loading next page...
 
/lp/wiley/assessing-effects-of-forecasted-climate-change-on-the-diversity-and-QmSwGFP8fI
Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 Wiley Subscription Services
ISSN
1354-1013
eISSN
1365-2486
DOI
10.1046/j.1354-1013.2001.00467.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The rapidly increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may lead to significant changes in regional and seasonal climate patterns. Such changes can strongly influence the diversity and distribution of species and, therefore, affect ecosystems and biodiversity. To assess these changes we developed a model, called euromove. The model uses climate data from 1990 to 2050 as compiled from the image 2 model, and determines climate envelopes for about 1400 plant species by multiple logistic regression analysis. The climate envelopes were applied to the projected climate to obtain predictions about plant diversity and distributions by 2050. For each European grid cell, euromove calculates which species would still occur in forecasted future climate conditions and which not. The results show major changes in biodiversity by 2050. On average, 32% of the European plant species that were present in a cell in 1990 would disappear from that cell. The area, in which 32% or more of the 1990 species will disappear, takes up 44% of the modelled European area. Individual responses of the plant species to the forecasted climate change were diverse. In reviewing possible future trends, we found that plant species, in general, would find their current climate envelopes further northeast by 2050, shifting ranges that were comparable with those ranges in other studies.

Journal

Global Change BiologyWiley

Published: Jan 1, 2002

Keywords: ; ; ;

References

  • Image 2.0: Integrated Modelling of Global Climate Change
    Alcamo, J
  • Climate and the distribution of Fallopia japonica: use for an introduced species to test the predictive capacity of response surfaces
    Beerling, DJ; Huntley, B; Baily, JP
  • IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change.
    Carter, TR; Parry, ML; Harasawa, H; Nishioka, S
  • Assessment of climatic warming using a model of forest species migration
    Dyer, JM
  • Global Change and Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems
    Huntley, B
  • Modelling present and potential future ranges of some European higher plants using climate response surfaces
    Huntley, B; Berry, PM; Cramer, W; McDonald, AP
  • Toward an Understanding of Global Change

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create folders to
organize your research

Export folders, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off