The contribution of errors on individual parameters to uncertainties in model predictions is studied in a hydrologic model of a marsh. Daily values of water level and storage are calculated in the model as a function of precipitation, storm runoff from the urban watershed, physical properties of soil, groundwater movement, and daily values of evapotranspiration. Errors associated with each parameter were propagated through the model calculations by Monte Carlo simulation. The distribution of each hydrologic parameter, considered as a random variable, was specified by mean, variance, maximum, and minimum values. Random numbers drawn from these distributions were used to simulate 244 days of water level and storage in the marsh. Errors for the marsh model are bounded, returning toward zero rather than growing monotonically through time. Although the simulations show considerable error for some days, the overall behavior of the model is robust. The seasonal contribution of specific parameters has important implications for model calibration and validation. Our analysis indicates that Monte Carlo analysis using actual estimates of parameter error leads to different conclusions than sensitivity analysis.
Water Resources Research – Wiley
Published: Aug 1, 1980
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera