ACCURACY OF JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING OF TIME SERIES

ACCURACY OF JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING OF TIME SERIES ABSTRACT Experiments contrasted judgmental and objective forecast methods. Judgmental methods included “eyeball” extrapolation of time‐series plots and judgmental adjustment. Objective methods included Box‐Jenkins (BJ), Carbone‐Longini AEP filtering (CL), Holt‐Winters (HW), and other smoothing techniques. Objective methods proved more accurate than eyeball extrapolation. However, judgmental adjustment improved the accuracy of some objective forecasts. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Decision Sciences Wiley

ACCURACY OF JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING OF TIME SERIES

Decision Sciences, Volume 16 (2) – Apr 1, 1985

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1985 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0011-7315
eISSN
1540-5915
D.O.I.
10.1111/j.1540-5915.1985.tb01480.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

ABSTRACT Experiments contrasted judgmental and objective forecast methods. Judgmental methods included “eyeball” extrapolation of time‐series plots and judgmental adjustment. Objective methods included Box‐Jenkins (BJ), Carbone‐Longini AEP filtering (CL), Holt‐Winters (HW), and other smoothing techniques. Objective methods proved more accurate than eyeball extrapolation. However, judgmental adjustment improved the accuracy of some objective forecasts.

Journal

Decision SciencesWiley

Published: Apr 1, 1985

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