A NOTE ON ECONOMIC BASE STUDIES AND REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODELS *

A NOTE ON ECONOMIC BASE STUDIES AND REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODELS * 1. INTRODUCTION Whatever the matter of interest and the religious persuasion of the investigator, it is not unusual for the empirical researcher to wish that there had been an Eighth Day of the Creation on which it had been uttered, “Let there be a Bureau of Comprehensive Statistics on Everything.” Particularly frustrating is the lack of information bearing on subnational economic events, a class of phenomena wlhich it is generally conceded, is becoming ever more important with increasing poitical, emphasis on decentralization of governmental function. Data available are only marginally sufficient for the involved quantitative models developed by economists over the past 30 years to appraise the consequences of alternative policies. As a result, regional policies generally have been scrutinized only with the aid of tools of seemingly lesser power. This note suggests an approach to regional modeling which may be characterized as a synthesis of the theoretically simple economic base study and the more complex regional econometric forecasting model. As one would expect, such a synthesis entails some loss of detail from that which obtains in a forecasting model. Sufficient detail is retained, however, to allow inference of the interrelationships between activities of certain sectors and overall http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Regional Science Wiley

A NOTE ON ECONOMIC BASE STUDIES AND REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODELS *

Journal of Regional Science, Volume 10 (3) – Dec 1, 1970

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
Copyright © 1970 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
ISSN
0022-4146
eISSN
1467-9787
DOI
10.1111/j.1467-9787.1970.tb00055.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

1. INTRODUCTION Whatever the matter of interest and the religious persuasion of the investigator, it is not unusual for the empirical researcher to wish that there had been an Eighth Day of the Creation on which it had been uttered, “Let there be a Bureau of Comprehensive Statistics on Everything.” Particularly frustrating is the lack of information bearing on subnational economic events, a class of phenomena wlhich it is generally conceded, is becoming ever more important with increasing poitical, emphasis on decentralization of governmental function. Data available are only marginally sufficient for the involved quantitative models developed by economists over the past 30 years to appraise the consequences of alternative policies. As a result, regional policies generally have been scrutinized only with the aid of tools of seemingly lesser power. This note suggests an approach to regional modeling which may be characterized as a synthesis of the theoretically simple economic base study and the more complex regional econometric forecasting model. As one would expect, such a synthesis entails some loss of detail from that which obtains in a forecasting model. Sufficient detail is retained, however, to allow inference of the interrelationships between activities of certain sectors and overall

Journal

Journal of Regional ScienceWiley

Published: Dec 1, 1970

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