21st Century Sea‐Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord

21st Century Sea‐Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord IntroductionThe Paris Climate Agreement (United Nations [UN], ) aims to hold the rise in global average temperatures to “well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.” The agreement was signed by 195 countries and ratified by 170, equivalent to 87.9% of global emissions (Climate Analytics, ). While this outcome is highly encouraging, the process required to achieve deep and rapid emission reduction remains extremely challenging (Rogelj et al., ). A key question posed to the research community is the difference between the climate systems for these two temperature scenarios. At present, temperature pathways are an output of climate models for specific emissions scenarios rather than being the parameter under control.While the atmospheric community have developed intercomparison projects to explore the impact of a Paris‐like agreement upon, for example temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g., Mitchell et al., ), such intercomparison projects have not been made by the oceanographic community. This leaves the sea‐level community needing to make the best of currently available data and methods. Two recent approaches aimed at overcoming this problem use idealized temperature pathways to drive a simple semi‐empirical global sea‐level (GSL) model (Bittermann et http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Earth's Future Wiley

21st Century Sea‐Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord

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Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
© 2018 American Geophysical Union
ISSN
2328-4277
eISSN
2328-4277
D.O.I.
10.1002/2017EF000688
Publisher site
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Abstract

IntroductionThe Paris Climate Agreement (United Nations [UN], ) aims to hold the rise in global average temperatures to “well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.” The agreement was signed by 195 countries and ratified by 170, equivalent to 87.9% of global emissions (Climate Analytics, ). While this outcome is highly encouraging, the process required to achieve deep and rapid emission reduction remains extremely challenging (Rogelj et al., ). A key question posed to the research community is the difference between the climate systems for these two temperature scenarios. At present, temperature pathways are an output of climate models for specific emissions scenarios rather than being the parameter under control.While the atmospheric community have developed intercomparison projects to explore the impact of a Paris‐like agreement upon, for example temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g., Mitchell et al., ), such intercomparison projects have not been made by the oceanographic community. This leaves the sea‐level community needing to make the best of currently available data and methods. Two recent approaches aimed at overcoming this problem use idealized temperature pathways to drive a simple semi‐empirical global sea‐level (GSL) model (Bittermann et

Journal

Earth's Future – Wiley

Published: Jan 1, 2018

Keywords: ;

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