Abstract

Transition in Turbulence: Geostrategic Implications of Climate Change and the Energy Transition 39 CONFLICT REPORTS Protesters sing the Ukrainian national anthem outside the Russian embassy in Kyiv, 22 February 2022 Global Trends 1 Americas Regional Analysis 40 Brazil 66Honduras 94 Confl ict Reports Haiti 76 Regional Outlook 100 Mexico 44 Confl ict Summaries Colombia 56 El Salvador 86 M Members of the Hondur embers of the Honduran an Na National A tional An nti- ti-G Gang F ang For orc ce guar e guard d an alleged an alleged M Mar ara S a Salv alva atrucha trucha ( ( MS MS-13) gang leader -13) gang leader, , T Tegucigalpa, 27 July 2021 egucigalpa, 27 July 2021 Overview its disastrous socio-economic legacy is likely to rein- force criminal groups’ power and political role against The Americas’ confl ict landscape remains dominated a backdrop of ever more limited government resources and driven by a mixture of organised crime and politi- and eff ectiveness, high poverty levels and lack of oppor- cal violence. Criminal groups fight against one another tunities for young people. for control of illicit economies (notably drug traffi ck- Another trend strengthened by the pandemic ing). In the