Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach

Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel... Climatic Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2221-3 Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach 1 2 Maria Belyaeva & Raushan Bokusheva Received: 20 September 2016 /Accepted: 13 May 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Using recent advances in statistical crop yield modelling and a unique dataset consisting of yield time series for Russian regions over the period from 1955 to 2012, the study investigates the potential impact of climate change (CC) on the productivity of the three most important grains. Holding current grain growing areas fixed, the aggregate productivity of the three grains is predicted to decrease by 6.7% in 2046–2065 and increase by 2.6% in 2081–2100 compared to 1971–2000 under the most optimistic representative emission concentration pathway (RCP). Based on the projections for the three other RCPs, the aggregate productivity of the three studied crops is assessed to decrease by 18.0, 7.9 and 26.0% in the medium term and by 31.2, 25.9 and 55.4% by the end of the century. Our results indicate that CC might have a positive effect on winter wheat, spring wheat and spring barley productivity in a number of regions in the Northern and http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Climatic Change Springer Journals

Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach

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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature
Subject
Earth Sciences; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
ISSN
0165-0009
eISSN
1573-1480
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10584-018-2221-3
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Climatic Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2221-3 Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach 1 2 Maria Belyaeva & Raushan Bokusheva Received: 20 September 2016 /Accepted: 13 May 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Using recent advances in statistical crop yield modelling and a unique dataset consisting of yield time series for Russian regions over the period from 1955 to 2012, the study investigates the potential impact of climate change (CC) on the productivity of the three most important grains. Holding current grain growing areas fixed, the aggregate productivity of the three grains is predicted to decrease by 6.7% in 2046–2065 and increase by 2.6% in 2081–2100 compared to 1971–2000 under the most optimistic representative emission concentration pathway (RCP). Based on the projections for the three other RCPs, the aggregate productivity of the three studied crops is assessed to decrease by 18.0, 7.9 and 26.0% in the medium term and by 31.2, 25.9 and 55.4% by the end of the century. Our results indicate that CC might have a positive effect on winter wheat, spring wheat and spring barley productivity in a number of regions in the Northern and

Journal

Climatic ChangeSpringer Journals

Published: May 27, 2018

References

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