Objective We examine the relationship between early criminal involvement and school dropout, and analyze which factors underlie this relationship, making use of administrative data from the Netherlands. Methods We start by determining the unconditional correlation between early criminal involvement and school dropout, using a basic ordinary least squares model. As this association is likely to be driven by different factors, we proceed by including an extensive set of observable family and individual characteristics into the estimation model. We further proceed to models that account for the inﬂuence of unobservable heterogeneity by estimating school, class, sibling and twin ﬁxed effects. Results Criminal involvement is associated with an 11 percentage point higher probability of school dropout. The magnitude of this relationship decreases gradually when we account for larger shares of observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The coefﬁcient in the same- gender twin ﬁxed effects model indicates a 3 percentage point higher probability of school dropout, which is statistically signiﬁcant at a 10 % level. We also ﬁnd that the association between criminal involvement and school dropout is stronger if juveniles are involved in severe criminal activities. Conclusions We conclude that the observable and unobservable factors for which we account explain around 73
Journal of Quantitative Criminology – Springer Journals
Published: Oct 12, 2016
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