Welcome to the Club — On the Accuracy of Growth Forecasts for China

Welcome to the Club — On the Accuracy of Growth Forecasts for China Forecasts for the Chinese economy are often seen as unreliable. This impedes a proper assessment of the country’s course, and given that China is the world’s second-largest economy, it also has implications for international projections. This article examines the accuracy of real GDP forecasts by three international forecasters and two German forecasters over the period 1991-2015. While forecasters had considerable diffi culties in tracking the large upswings in China in the 1990s and early 2000s, they were quite accurate for the period 2004-2015, particularly when comparing the IMF’s forecasts for China with its forecasts for the United States or Germany. The forecast accuracy found in the Chinese Five-Year Plans is also surprisingly high. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Intereconomics Springer Journals

Welcome to the Club — On the Accuracy of Growth Forecasts for China

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 by ZBW and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany
Subject
Economics; Economic Policy; European Integration; Social Policy; Labor Economics
ISSN
0020-5346
eISSN
1613-964X
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10272-017-0683-6
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Forecasts for the Chinese economy are often seen as unreliable. This impedes a proper assessment of the country’s course, and given that China is the world’s second-largest economy, it also has implications for international projections. This article examines the accuracy of real GDP forecasts by three international forecasters and two German forecasters over the period 1991-2015. While forecasters had considerable diffi culties in tracking the large upswings in China in the 1990s and early 2000s, they were quite accurate for the period 2004-2015, particularly when comparing the IMF’s forecasts for China with its forecasts for the United States or Germany. The forecast accuracy found in the Chinese Five-Year Plans is also surprisingly high.

Journal

IntereconomicsSpringer Journals

Published: Aug 10, 2017

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