Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based... The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimiza- tion model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Environmental Science and Pollution Research Springer Journals

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China

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Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature
Subject
Environment; Environment, general; Environmental Chemistry; Ecotoxicology; Environmental Health; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution
ISSN
0944-1344
eISSN
1614-7499
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11356-018-2408-1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimiza- tion model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water

Journal

Environmental Science and Pollution ResearchSpringer Journals

Published: Jun 5, 2018

References

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