Volatility forecasting in the Chinese commodity futures market with intraday data

Volatility forecasting in the Chinese commodity futures market with intraday data Given the unique institutional regulations in the Chinese commodity futures market as well as the characteristics of the data it generates, we utilize contracts with three months to delivery, the most liquid contract series, to systematically explore volatility forecasting for aluminum, copper, fuel oil, and sugar at the daily and three intraday sampling frequencies. We adopt popular volatility models in the literature and assess the forecasts obtained via these models against alternative proxies for the true volatility. Our results suggest that the long memory property is an essential feature in the commodity futures volatility dynamics and that the ARFIMA model consistently produces the best forecasts or forecasts not inferior to the best in statistical terms. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting Springer Journals

Volatility forecasting in the Chinese commodity futures market with intraday data

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Publisher
Springer US
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 by The Author(s)
Subject
Finance; Corporate Finance; Accounting/Auditing; Econometrics; Operation Research/Decision Theory
ISSN
0924-865X
eISSN
1573-7179
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11156-016-0570-4
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Given the unique institutional regulations in the Chinese commodity futures market as well as the characteristics of the data it generates, we utilize contracts with three months to delivery, the most liquid contract series, to systematically explore volatility forecasting for aluminum, copper, fuel oil, and sugar at the daily and three intraday sampling frequencies. We adopt popular volatility models in the literature and assess the forecasts obtained via these models against alternative proxies for the true volatility. Our results suggest that the long memory property is an essential feature in the commodity futures volatility dynamics and that the ARFIMA model consistently produces the best forecasts or forecasts not inferior to the best in statistical terms.

Journal

Review of Quantitative Finance and AccountingSpringer Journals

Published: May 3, 2016

References

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