Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2: historical and projected climate analyses

Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2:... Climatic Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2227-x Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO : historical and projected climate analyses 1 2 Mark J. Hovenden & Paul C. D. Newton Received: 13 December 2017 /Accepted: 21 May 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Correctly estimating the effect of elevated CO (eCO ) on biomass production is 2 2 paramount for accurately projecting agricultural productivity, global carbon balances and climate changes. Plant physiology suggests that eCO should result in a strongly positive CO fertilisation effect (CFE) via positive effects on photosynthesis and water use efficiency. However, the CFE in CO experiments is often constrained because of other factors of which rainfall pattern is particularly important. Here, we apply a generally applicable, empirically derived relationship between the CFE and an index of seasonal rainfall balance (SRB), to identify how historical and projected future rainfall patterns modify the CFE using 25 native grassland sites in south-eastern (SE) Australia as a test case. We found that historical and projected rainfall produced SRBs that varied widely from year-to-year resulting in a CFE that was only positive in about 40% of years, with no or even negative biomass responses in http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Climatic Change Springer Journals

Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2: historical and projected climate analyses

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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature
Subject
Earth Sciences; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
ISSN
0165-0009
eISSN
1573-1480
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10584-018-2227-x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Climatic Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2227-x Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO : historical and projected climate analyses 1 2 Mark J. Hovenden & Paul C. D. Newton Received: 13 December 2017 /Accepted: 21 May 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Correctly estimating the effect of elevated CO (eCO ) on biomass production is 2 2 paramount for accurately projecting agricultural productivity, global carbon balances and climate changes. Plant physiology suggests that eCO should result in a strongly positive CO fertilisation effect (CFE) via positive effects on photosynthesis and water use efficiency. However, the CFE in CO experiments is often constrained because of other factors of which rainfall pattern is particularly important. Here, we apply a generally applicable, empirically derived relationship between the CFE and an index of seasonal rainfall balance (SRB), to identify how historical and projected future rainfall patterns modify the CFE using 25 native grassland sites in south-eastern (SE) Australia as a test case. We found that historical and projected rainfall produced SRBs that varied widely from year-to-year resulting in a CFE that was only positive in about 40% of years, with no or even negative biomass responses in

Journal

Climatic ChangeSpringer Journals

Published: Jun 6, 2018

References

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