From January 2010 to December 2016, 1616 consecutive patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) were evaluated for their predicted mortality according to the online Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation (SinoSCORE), European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk evaluation system. The calibration and discrimination in the total and in the subsets were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistics and by the C statistics respectively, to evaluate the efficiency of the three risk evaluation systems. The realized mortality was 1.92% (31/1616). The predictive mortality of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk evaluation system were 1.35%, 1.74% and 1.05%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved best discrimination. When grouping by risk, SinoSCORE also achieved the best discrimination in high-risk group, followed by STS risk evaluation system and EuroSCORE II while SinoSCORE and EuroSCORE II had excellent performance in low-risk group. In terms of calibration, SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations (H-L: P > 0.05) in the overall population and grouped subsets. SinoSCORE achieved good predictive efficiency in East China patients undergoing isolated CABG and showed no compromise when compared with EuroSCORE II and STS risk evaluation system.
Scientific Reports – Springer Journals
Published: Dec 1, 2017
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