Uncertain Potential Output and Simple Rules in Small Open Economy

Uncertain Potential Output and Simple Rules in Small Open Economy This paper analyzes the implications of incomplete information for the conduct of monetary policy in small-open economy. I use a standard theoretical DSGE model to evaluate the performance of simple rules, including the exchange rate peg. Incomplete information is modeled assuming that the central bank and the private sector observe domestic inflation and output with a measurement error, while they do not observe potential output. I show that not reacting to the exchange rate yields better outcomes in terms of a standard loss function. For the case of complete information and incomplete information, I quantify for which parameter configuration a Taylor rule reacting to both the exchange rate and the domestic inflation rate yields a higher loss than the fixed exchange rate regime. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Computational Economics Springer Journals

Uncertain Potential Output and Simple Rules in Small Open Economy

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Publisher
Springer US
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 by Springer Science+Business Media New York
Subject
Economics; Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods; Computer Appl. in Social and Behavioral Sciences; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Behavioral/Experimental Economics; Math Applications in Computer Science
ISSN
0927-7099
eISSN
1572-9974
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10614-016-9601-4
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of incomplete information for the conduct of monetary policy in small-open economy. I use a standard theoretical DSGE model to evaluate the performance of simple rules, including the exchange rate peg. Incomplete information is modeled assuming that the central bank and the private sector observe domestic inflation and output with a measurement error, while they do not observe potential output. I show that not reacting to the exchange rate yields better outcomes in terms of a standard loss function. For the case of complete information and incomplete information, I quantify for which parameter configuration a Taylor rule reacting to both the exchange rate and the domestic inflation rate yields a higher loss than the fixed exchange rate regime.

Journal

Computational EconomicsSpringer Journals

Published: Jul 26, 2016

References

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