Trends, Cycles and Convergence in U.S. Regional House Prices

Trends, Cycles and Convergence in U.S. Regional House Prices In this study we present a statistical analysis of the time series properties of the geographic regions in the OFHEO U.S. house price database. The time period for our study is first quarter 1975 through second quarter 2005. We perform an unobserved components, structural time series analysis of nine regional indexes and two super-regional factors and fit a classic “smooth trend plus cycle” model. We then apply bivariate unit root tests for absolute and relative convergence of the regions and factors, allowing for the possibility of a structural break. We find the two super-regions have slightly different patterns of trends and cycles until the early to mid-1990s, when a common pattern of strong and sustained price appreciation is seen. The evidence for regional convergence is mixed, with little for the first super-regional factor and some examples of relative convergence within the second factor. Thus support for a simple error correction model for regional house prices in our study is mixed. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics Springer Journals

Trends, Cycles and Convergence in U.S. Regional House Prices

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Publisher
Springer US
Copyright
Copyright © 2009 by Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
Subject
Economics; Regional/Spatial Science; Financial Services
ISSN
0895-5638
eISSN
1573-045X
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11146-009-9183-1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In this study we present a statistical analysis of the time series properties of the geographic regions in the OFHEO U.S. house price database. The time period for our study is first quarter 1975 through second quarter 2005. We perform an unobserved components, structural time series analysis of nine regional indexes and two super-regional factors and fit a classic “smooth trend plus cycle” model. We then apply bivariate unit root tests for absolute and relative convergence of the regions and factors, allowing for the possibility of a structural break. We find the two super-regions have slightly different patterns of trends and cycles until the early to mid-1990s, when a common pattern of strong and sustained price appreciation is seen. The evidence for regional convergence is mixed, with little for the first super-regional factor and some examples of relative convergence within the second factor. Thus support for a simple error correction model for regional house prices in our study is mixed.

Journal

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and EconomicsSpringer Journals

Published: May 7, 2009

References

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